With over ⅓ of the food in the USA ending up as waste according to the USDA, it is a compelling challenge to address this travesty. What will happen to hunger, food prices, trash reduction, water consumption, and overall sustainability when we stop squandering this abundance?

Beginning with the departure from the farm to the back of the store, the freshness clock continues to run. Grocers work very hard to purchase high quality produce items for their customers and the journey to the shelf can take a toll in both quality and remaining shelf life. Suppliers focus on delivering their items through the arduous supply chain journey to the store with speed and gentle handling. The baton is then passed to the store to unload and present the items to customers with care to sell through each lot significantly before the expiration or sell by date. This is to ensure that the time spent in the customer’s home is ample to ensure a great eating experience as well. Food waste is a farm to fork problem with opportunity at every step of the chain, but today we will focus on the segment that the grocery industry oversees.

With the complexities of weather, geopolitical issues, distribution, sales variability, pricing, promotions, and inventory management, it seems daunting to impact waste. Fortunately, data analytics and machine learning in the cloud is a powerful weapon in the fight against food waste. Data Scientists harness knowledge to draw meaning from data turning that data into decision driving information.

One key Google has been working on to accelerate value is to break down data silos and leverage machine learning to realize better outcomes, using our Google Data Cloud platform. This enables better planning through demand forecasting, Inventory management, assortment planning, and dynamic pricing and promotions.

That sounds great but how does it work?

Let’s walk through a day in the life journey to see how the integrated Google Data Cloud platform can change the game for good. Our friendly fictitious grocer FastFreshFood is committed to selling high quality perishable items to their local market. Their goal is to minimize food waste and maximize revenue by selling as much perishable fresh food as possible before the sell by date. Our fictitious grocer in partnership with Google Cloud could build a solution that will take a significant bite out of their food waste volume and better satisfy customers.

1. Sales through the register and online are processed in real time with Datastream, Dataflow to keep an accurate perpetual inventory by minute of every single item.
2. A Demand forecasting model using machine learning algorithms in BigQuery then identifies needs for back room replenishment, so Direct Store Delivery and daily store Distribution Centers manage ordering more efficiently to ensure just the right amount of each product each day.
3. Realtime reporting dashboards in Looker with alerting capabilities enable the system to operate with strong associate support and understanding. The reporting suite shows inventory levels into the future, daily orders, and at risk items.

The pricing algorithm could also alert store leadership concerning any items that will not sell through and suggest real time in store specials resulting in zero waste at shelf and maximized revenue.

This approach is not just for perishable categories and is a pattern that works well for in-store produced items and center store items. The key point is that by bringing ML/AI to difficult business problems grocers are reinventing what is possible for both their profitability and sustainability.

The technical implementation of this design pattern in Google Cloud leverages Datastream, Dataflow, BigQuery and Looker products, it is detailed in a technical tutorial accompanying this blog post.

In partnership with Google Cloud, retailers can solve complex problems with innovative solutions to achieve higher quality, lower cost, and provide great customer experiences. To learn more from this and other use cases, please visit our Design Patterns website.

Curious to learn more?

We’re excited to share what we know about tackling food waste at Google, a topic we’ve been working on in the last decade as we’ve embarked on reducing our own food waste in our operations in over 50 countries in the world. The Google Food for Good team works exclusively on Google Cloud Platform with our partners on this topic. Two additional articles below.

Silos are for food, not for data – tackling food waste with technology
This business Cloud blog directly addresses information silos that currently exist across many nodes in the food system and how to break down cultural and organizational barriers to sharing.

“Unsiloing” data to work toward solving food waste and food insecurity
This follow-on technical Cloud blog articulates the path to setting up data pipelines, translating between data sets (not everyone calls a tomato a tomato!) and making sense of emergent insights.

Explainable AI (XAI) helps you understand and interpret how your machine learning models make decisions. We’re excited to announce that BigQuery Explainable AI is now generally available (GA). BigQuery is the data warehouse that supports explainable AI in a most comprehensive way w.r.t both XAI methodology and model types. It does this at BigQuery scale, enabling millions of explanations within seconds with a single SQL query.

Why is Explainable AI so important? To demystify the inner workings of machine learning models, Explainable AI is quickly becoming an essential and growing need for businesses as they continue to invest in AI and ML. With 76% of enterprises now prioritizing artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) over other initiatives in 2021 IT budgets, the majority of CEOs (82%) believe that AI-based decisions must be explainable to be trusted according to a PwC survey.

While the focus of this blogpost is on BigQuery Explainable AI, Google Cloud provides a variety of tools and frameworks to help you interpret models outside of BigQuery, such as with Vertex Explainable AI, which includes AutoML Tables, AutoML Vision, and custom-trained models.

So how does Explainable AI in BigQuery work exactly? And how might you use it in practice? 

Two types of Explainable AI: global and local explainability

When it comes to Explainable AI, the first thing to note is that there are two main types of explainability as they relate to the features used to train the ML model: global explainability and local explainability.

Imagine that you have a ML model that predicts housing price (as a dollar amount), based on three features: (1) number of bedrooms, (2) distance to the nearest city center, and (3) construction date.

Global explainability (a.k.a. global feature importance) describes the features’ overall influence on the model and helps you understand if a feature had a greater influence than other features over the model’s predictions. For example, global explainability can reveal that the number of bedrooms and distance to city center typically has a much stronger influence than the construction date on predicting housing prices. Global explainability is especially useful if you have hundreds or thousands of features and you want to determine which features are the most important contributors to your model. You may also consider using global explainability as a way to identify and prune less important features to improve the generalizability of their models.

Local explainability (a.k.a. feature attributions) describes the breakdown of how each feature contributes towards a specific prediction. For example, if the model predicts that house ID#1001 has a predicted price of $230,000, local explainability would describe a baseline amount (e.g. $50,000) and how each of the features contributes on top of the baseline towards the predicted price. For example, the model may say that on top of the baseline of $50,000, having 3 bedrooms contributed an additional $50,000, close proximity to the city center added $100,000, and construction date of 2010 added $30,000, for a total predicted price of $230,000. In essence, understanding the exact contribution of each feature used by the model to make each prediction is the main purpose of local explainability.

What ML models does BigQuery Explainable AI apply to?

BigQuery Explainable AI applies to a variety of models, including supervised learning models for IID data and time series models. The documentation for BigQuery Explainable AI provides an overview of the different ways of applying explainability per model. Note that each explainability method has its own way of calculation (e.g. Shapley values), which are covered more in-depth in the documentation.

Examples with BigQuery Explainable AI

In this next section, we will show three examples of how to use BigQuery Explainable AI in different ML applications: 

• regression 
• classification
• time-series forecasting

Regression models with BigQuery Explainable AI

Let’s use a boosted tree regression model to predict how much a taxi cab driver will receive in tips for a taxi ride, based on features such as number of passengers, payment type, total payment and trip distance. Then let’s use BigQuery Explainable AI to help us understand how the model made the predictions in terms of global explainability (which features were most important?) and local explainability (how did the model arrive at each prediction?).

The taxi trips dataset comes from the BigQuery public datasets and is publicly available in the table: bigquery-public-data.new_york_taxi_trips.tlc_yellow_trips_2018. 

First, you can train a boosted tree regression model.

  CREATE OR REPLACE MODEL bqml_tutorial.taxi_tip_regression_model
OPTIONS (model_type='boosted_tree_regressor',
         input_label_cols=['tip_amount'],
         max_iterations = 50,
         tree_method = 'HIST',
         subsample = 0.85,
         enable_global_explain = TRUE
) AS
SELECT
  vendor_id,
  passenger_count,
  trip_distance,
  rate_code,
  payment_type,
  total_amount,
  tip_amount
FROM
  `bigquery-public-data.new_york_taxi_trips.tlc_yellow_trips_2018`
WHERE tip_amount >= 0
LIMIT 1000000

Now let’s do a prediction using ML.PREDICT, which is the standard way in BigQuery ML to make predictions without explainability.

  SELECT *
FROM
ML.PREDICT(MODEL bqml_tutorial.taxi_tip_regression_model,
 (
 SELECT
   "0" AS vendor_id,
   1 AS passenger_count,
   CAST(5.85 AS NUMERIC) AS trip_distance,
   "0" AS rate_code,
   "0" AS payment_type,
   CAST(55.56 AS NUMERIC) AS total_amount))

But you might wonder—how did the model generate this prediction of ~11.077?

BigQuery Explainable AI can help us answer this question. Instead of using ML.PREDICT, you use ML.EXPLAIN_PREDICT with an additional optional parameter top_k_features. ML.EXPLAIN_PREDICT extends the capabilities of ML.PREDICT by outputting several additional columns that explain how each feature contributes to the predicted value. In fact, since ML.EXPLAIN_PREDICT includes all the output from ML.PREDICT anyway, you may want to consider using ML.EXPLAIN_PREDICT every time instead.

  SELECT *
FROM
ML.EXPLAIN_PREDICT(MODEL bqml_tutorial.taxi_tip_regression_model,
 (
 SELECT
   "0" AS vendor_id,
   1 AS passenger_count,
   CAST(5.85 AS NUMERIC) AS trip_distance,
   "0" AS rate_code,
   "0" AS payment_type,
   CAST(55.56 AS NUMERIC) AS total_amount),
 STRUCT(6 AS top_k_features))

The way to interpret these columns is:

Σfeature_attributions + baseline_prediction_value = prediction_value

Let’s break this down. The prediction_value is ~11.077, which is simply the predicted_tip_amount. The baseline_prediction_value is ~6.184, which is the tip amount for an average instance. top_feature_attributions indicates how much each of the features contributes towards the prediction value. For example, total_amount contributes ~2.540 to the predicted_tip_amount. 

ML.EXPLAIN_PREDICT provides local feature explainability for regression models. For global feature importance, see the documentation for ML.GLOBAL_EXPLAIN.

Classification models with BigQuery Explainable AI

Let’s use a logistic regression model to show you an example of BigQuery Explainable AI with classification models. We can use the same public dataset as before: bigquery-public-data.new_york_taxi_trips.tlc_yellow_trips_2018.

Train a logistic regression model to predict the bracket of the percentage of the tip amount out of the taxi bill.

  CREATE OR REPLACE MODEL bqml_tutorial.taxi_tip_classification_model
OPTIONS
 (model_type='logistic_reg',
  input_label_cols=['tip_bucket'],
  enable_global_explain=true
) AS
SELECT
  vendor_id,
  passenger_count,
  trip_distance,
  rate_code,
  payment_type,
  total_amount,
  CASE
    WHEN tip_amount > total_amount*0.20 THEN '20% or more'
    WHEN tip_amount > total_amount*0.15 THEN '15% to 20%'
    WHEN tip_amount > total_amount*0.10 THEN '10% to 15%'
  ELSE '10% or less'
  END AS tip_bucket
FROM
  `bigquery-public-data.new_york_taxi_trips.tlc_yellow_trips_2018`
WHERE tip_amount >= 0
LIMIT 1000000

Next, you can run ML.EXPLAIN_PREDICT to get both the classification results and the additional information for local feature explainability. For global explainability, you can use ML.GLOBAL_EXPLAIN. Again, since ML.EXPLAIN_PREDICT includes all the output from ML.PREDICT anyway, you may want to consider using ML.EXPLAIN_PREDICT every time instead.

  SELECT *
FROM
ML.EXPLAIN_PREDICT(MODEL bqml_tutorial.taxi_tip_classification_model,
 (
 SELECT
   "0" AS vendor_id,
   1 AS passenger_count,
   CAST(5.85 AS NUMERIC) AS trip_distance,
   "0" AS rate_code,
   "0" AS payment_type,
   CAST(55.56 AS NUMERIC) AS total_amount),
 STRUCT(6 AS top_k_features))

Similar to the regression example earlier, the formula is used to derive the prediction_value:

Σfeature_attributions + baseline_prediction_value = prediction_value

As you can see in the screenshot above, the baseline_prediction_value is ~0.296. total_amount is the most important feature in making this specific prediction, contributing ~0.067 to the prediction_value, though followed by trip_distance. The feature passenger_count contributes negatively to prediction_value by -0.0015. The features vendor_id, rate_code, and payment_type did not seem to contribute much to the prediction_value.

You may wonder why the prediction_value of ~0.389 doesn’t equal the probability value of  ~0.359. The reason is that unlike for regression models, for classification models, prediction_value is not a probability score. Instead, prediction_value is the logit value (i.e., log-odds) for the predicted class, which you could separately convert to probabilities by applying the softmax transformation to the logit values. For example, a three-class classification has a log-odds output of [2.446, -2.021, -2.190]. After applying the softmax transformation, the probability of these class predictions is [0.9905, 0.0056, 0.0038].

Time-series forecasting models with BigQuery Explainable AI

Explainable AI for forecasting provides more interpretability into how the forecasting model came to its predictions. Let’s go through an example of forecasting the number of bike trips in NYC using the new_york.citibike_trips public data in BigQuery.

You can train a time-series model ARIMA_PLUS:

  CREATE OR REPLACE MODEL bqml_tutorial.nyc_citibike_arima_model
OPTIONS
  (model_type = 'ARIMA_PLUS',
   time_series_timestamp_col = 'date',
   time_series_data_col = 'num_trips',
   holiday_region = 'US'
  ) AS
SELECT
   EXTRACT(DATE from starttime) AS date,
   COUNT(*) AS num_trips
FROM
  `bigquery-public-data.new_york.citibike_trips`
GROUP BY date

Next, you can first try forecasting without explainability using ML.FORECAST:
SELECT
  *
FROM
  ML.FORECAST(MODEL bqml_tutorial.nyc_citibike_arima_model,
              STRUCT(365 AS horizon, 0.9 AS confidence_level))

This function outputs the forecasted values and the prediction interval. Plotting it in addition to the input time series gives the following figure.

But how does the forecasting model arrive at its predictions? Explainability is especially important if the model ever generates unexpected results.

With ML.EXPLAIN_FORECAST, BigQuery Explainable AI provides extra transparency into the seasonality, trend, holiday effects, level (step) changes, and spikes and dips outlier removal. In fact, since ML.EXPLAIN_FORECAST includes all the output from ML.FORECAST anyway, you may want to consider using ML.EXPLAIN_FORECAST every time instead.

  SELECT
  *
FROM
  ML.EXPLAIN_FORECAST(MODEL bqml_tutorial.nyc_citibike_arima_model,
                      STRUCT(365 AS horizon, 0.9 AS confidence_level))

Compared to the previous figure which only shows the forecasting results, this figure shows much richer information to explain how the forecast is made.  

First, it shows how the input time series is adjusted by removing the spikes and dips anomalies, and by compensating the level changes. That is:

time_series_adjusted_data = time_series_data - spikes_and_dips - step_changes

Second, it shows how the adjusted input time series is decomposed into different components such as both weekly and yearly seasonal components, holiday effect component and trend component. That is

time_series_adjusted_data = trend + seasonal_period_yearly + seasonal_period_weekly + holiday_effect + residual

Finally, it shows how these components are forecasted separately to compose the final forecasting results. That is:

time_series_data = trend + seasonal_period_yearly + seasonal_period_weekly + holiday_effect

For more information on these time series components, please see the documentation here.

Conclusion

With the GA of BigQuery Explainable AI, we hope you will now be able to interpret your machine learning models with ease. 

Thanks to the BigQuery ML team, especially Lisa Yin, Jiashang Liu, Amir Hormati, Mingge Deng, Jerry Ye and Abhinav Khushraj. Also thanks to the Vertex Explainable AI team, especially David Pitman and Besim Avci.

Editor’s note: In honor of Mother’s Day, we look at how 1-800-FLOWERS.COM, Inc. migrated to Google Cloud as part of its digital transformation to quickly deploy seamless and convenient customer experiences across multiple brands on Mother’s Day and every day. 

As a leading provider of gifts designed to help customers express, connect, and celebrate,  1-800-FLOWERS.COM, Inc. has embraced cloud technologies to grow and transform its business through constant innovation. As part of our digital transformation, we recently completed the migration of our ecommerce platform and other services to Google Cloud. We’ve transitioned from a monolithic to a microservices platform, moved many workloads from our on-premises data centers to our Google Cloud environment, and scaled both horizontally and vertically. 

Since our migration, we’ve developed efficient processes to launch new brands, improved the customer experience across all brands, and seen significantly increased site traffic. 

Nurturing a more delightful customer journey

Customer delight is at the core of everything we do. Whether it be with a flower bouquet, a sweet treat, or a personalized keepsake, our mission is to deliver smiles. With the rise of the COVID-19 pandemic, we’ve all been challenged to find unique and safe ways to continue honoring the special connections in our lives and celebrating occasions with loved ones. Our customers have adapted by doing things such as sending gifts to isolated loved ones, sharing the same meal together virtually, or using video to engage with others through group activities like flower arranging and building charcuterie boards. 

The customer experience is a top priority for us, and we constantly look for innovative ways to enhance the customer journey across our ecommerce platform of more than a dozen brands. As a result, we’ve continued to see a rise in demand as customers enjoy the ease and convenience of our site and discover our full family of brands. 

Migrating to a cloud-first mindset

As we’ve continued to innovate and iterate on the customer experience, we knew we wanted to evolve our platform. We wanted to shift to a microservices platform, which would allow our team the opportunity to release updates to our site more often and set up the right continuous integration/continuous deployment (CI/CD) practices. 

Working with Google Cloud, we were able to move our ecommerce platform to the cloud and standardize our site and brand deployment by building one release that could then be repeated across all of our brands. We built everything in a modular fashion, including microservices and      code libraries, so that sites could be easily constructed and replicated for each brand. And because of this, we were able to launch Shari’s Berries extremely quickly after we acquired the brand in 2019.   

Moving our platform to a completely homegrown solution of microservices was a daunting task. But our team handled it beautifully through load-testing, stress-testing, and building new monitoring tools. And with Google Cloud supporting us all along the way, managing the migration process was simple and easy from start to finish. 

Arranging a better bouquet of services

Currently, we’ve migrated every customer-facing touchpoint for all of our brands to Google Cloud—whether it’s on the web or mobile, our AI bots, or our chat interfaces. 

• We run on Google Kubernetes Engine and Istio.
• We have nearly 200 microservices built to help power our entire ecommerce stack across several cloud services running on Google Cloud. 
• We’re utilizing BigQuery for our offline intelligence.

Results are coming up roses

Our new stack on Google Cloud has benefits for both us and our customers. We moved from a session-based to a token-based system, which provides enhanced security as well as a consistent, convenient experience across all our brands. Using service workers and a single-page app, we are able to download all the relevant site content to the browser in under two seconds to create an instant-click experience for each and every customer. We also use Google Analytics to measure our user interactions and provide personalized results to each customer. Our hope is that with this new system, we can learn from customer behavior to offer gift givers a more personalized shopping experience during each visit. 

The benefits of our new tech stack have not only helped us enhance the solutions we offer to customers today, they’ve also enabled us to offer new ones at lightning speed. With our legacy system, we used to release new code once a week or once a month. Now, even during our peak periods, we’re able to release 10 to 15 times a day and can deploy and pivot quickly to create new microservices and microsites on the fly—often without having to touch any code. 

Efficiencies abound     

The benefits of moving our platform to Google Cloud have extended to our internal teams as well. Before the migration, we had only two environments for developing and testing, which made it time-consuming to test updates before they went into production. Now with Google Cloud, we have several different journey teams—which are made up of developers, product owners, and technical owners—all working in several different environments, solving problems, and creating new solutions together. 

Everyone is now empowered to be self-sufficient, developing and releasing microservices on their own when they’re ready. This has given our developers more time to take part in continued development and learning opportunities. For example, we offer lunch-and-learn sessions as well as other resources for everyone to take advantage of so they can continue to learn and refine their skills.

Planting the seeds for future growth

As we look to the future and think about how we help our customers express, connect, and celebrate, we’ll continue to collaborate across teams to deliver solutions that spread smiles. Specifically, we’re exploring additional use of AI to help us better serve our customers across all our brands. 

We’ve enjoyed the ongoing support we’ve received from the Google Cloud team as they help us build new solutions and design a road map for the future. Their support has helped the 1-800-FLOWERS.COM, Inc. team to realize the power of the cloud and bring the very best experience to our customers.

Learn more about 1-800-FLOWERS.COM, Inc., or check out our recent blog about cloud migration for the real world.

Over the past few decades, organizations have mastered the science of data warehousing. They have increasingly applied descriptive analytics to large quantities of stored data, gaining insight into their core business operations. Conventional Business Intelligence (BI), which focuses on querying, reporting, and Online Analytical Processing, might have been a differentiating factor in the past, either making or breaking a company, but it’s no longer sufficient.

Today, not only do organizations need to understand past events using descriptive analytics, they need predictive analytics, which often uses machine learning (ML) to extract data patterns and make probabilistic claims about the future. The ultimate goal is to develop prescriptive analytics that combine lessons from the past with predictions about the future to automatically guide real-time actions.

Traditional data warehouse practices capture raw data from various sources, which are often Online Transactional Processing (OLTP) systems. Then, a subset of data is extracted in batches, transformed based on a defined schema, and loaded into the data warehouse. Because traditional data warehouses capture a subset of data in batches and store data based on rigid schemas, they are unsuitable for handling real-time analysis or responding to spontaneous queries. Google designed BigQuery in part in response to these inherent limitations.

Innovative ideas are often slowed by the size and complexity of the IT organization that implements and maintains these traditional data warehouses. It can take years and substantial investment to build a scalable, highly available, and secure data warehouse architecture. BigQuery offers sophisticated software as a service (SaaS) technology that can be used for serverless data warehouse operations. This lets you focus on advancing your core business while delegating infrastructure maintenance and platform development to Google Cloud.

BigQuery offers access to structured data storage, processing, and analytics that’s scalable, flexible, and cost effective. These characteristics are essential when your data volumes are growing exponentially—to make storage and processing resources available as needed, as well as to get value from that data. Furthermore, for organizations that are just starting with big data analytics and machine learning, and that want to avoid the potential complexities of on-premises big data systems, BigQuery offers a pay-as-you-go way to experiment with managed services.

With BigQuery, you can find answers to previously intractable problems, apply machine learning to discover emerging data patterns, and test new hypotheses. As a result, you have timely insight into how your business is performing, which enables you to modify processes for better results. In addition, the end user’s experience is often enriched with relevant insights gleaned from big data analysis, as we explain later in this series.

The migration framework

Undertaking a migration can be a complex and lengthy endeavor. Therefore, we recommend adhering to a framework to organize and structure the migration work in phases:

1. Prepare and discover: Prepare for your migration with workload and use case discovery.
2. Assess and plan: Assess and prioritize use cases, define measures of success, and plan your migration.
3. Execute: Iterate the following steps for each use case:
   1. Migrate (offload): Migrate only your data, schema, and downstream business applications.
   2. Migrate (full): Alternatively, migrate the use case fully end-to-end. The same as Migrate (offload), with the addition of the upstream data pipelines.
   3. Verify and validate: Test and validate the migration to assess return on investment.

The following diagram illustrates the recommended framework and shows how the different phases are connected:

For a deeper understanding, read Migrating data warehouses to BigQuery: Introduction and overview