Wayfair: Carving the path towards MLOps excellence with Vertex AI - Build What's Next
Case Study

Wayfair: Carving the path towards MLOps excellence with Vertex AI

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This is the story of how Wayfair supported its 30 million active customers using machine learning (ML). With an aim to eventually migrate 100% of their batch models to Vertex AI, they look forward to continue their journey towards MLOps excellence.

Editor’s note: In part one of this blog, Wayfair shared how it supports each of its 30 million active customers using machine learning (ML). Wayfair’s Vinay Narayana, Head of ML Engineering, Bas Geerdink, Lead ML Engineer, and Christian Rehm, Senior Machine Learning Engineer, take us on a deeper dive into the ways Wayfair’s data scientists are using Vertex AI to improve model productionization, serving, and operational readiness velocity. The authors would like to thank Hasan Khan, Principal Architect, Google for contributions to this blog.

When Google announced its Vertex AI platform in 2021, the timing coincided perfectly with our search for a comprehensive and reliable AI Platform. Although we’d been working on our migration to Google Cloud over the previous couple of years, we knew that our work wouldn’t be complete once we were in the cloud. We’d simply be ready to take one more step in our workload modernization efforts, and move away from deploying and serving our ML models using legacy infrastructure components that struggle with stability and operational overhead. This has been a crucial part of our journey towards MLOps excellence, in which Vertex AI has proved to be of great support.

Carving the path towards MLOps excellence

Our MLOps vision at Wayfair is to deliver tools that support the collaboration between our internal teams, and enable data scientists to access reliable data while automating data processing, model training, evaluation and validation. Data scientists need autonomy to productionize their models for batch or online serving, and to continuously monitor their data and models in production. Our aim with Vertex AI is to empower data scientists to productionize models and easily monitor and evolve them without depending on engineers. Vertex AI gives us the infrastructure to do this with tools for training, validating, and deploying ML models and pipelines.

Previously, our lack of a comprehensive AI platform resulted in every data science team having to build their own unique model productionization processes on legacy infrastructure components. We also lacked a centralized feature store, which could benefit all ML projects at Wayfair. With this in mind, we chose to focus our initial adoption of the Vertex AI platform on its Feature Store component.

An initial POC confirmed that data scientists can easily get features from the Feature Store for training models, and that it makes it very easy to serve the models for batch or online inference with a single line of code. The Feature Store also automatically manages performance for batch and online requests. These results encouraged us to evaluate the adoption of Vertex AI Pipelines next, as the existing tech for workflow orchestration at Wayfair slowed us down greatly. As it turns out, both of these services are fundamental to several models we build and serve at Wayfair today.

Empowering data scientists to focus on building world-class ML models

Since adopting Vertex AI Feature Store and AI Pipelines, we’ve added a couple of capabilities at Wayfair to significantly improve our user experience and lower the bar to entry for data scientists to leverage Vertex AI and all it has to offer:

  1. Building a CI/CD and scheduling pipeline

Working with the Google team, we built an efficient CI/CD and scheduling pipeline based on the common tools and best practices at Wayfair and Google. This enables us to release Vertex AI Pipelines to our test and production environments, leveraging cloud-native services.


Keeping in mind that all our code is managed in GitHub Enterprise, we have dedicated repositories for Vertex AI Pipelines where the Kubeflow code and definitions of the Docker images are stored. If a change is pushed to a branch, a build starts in the Buildkite tool automatically. The build contains several steps, including unit and integration tests, code linting, documentation generation and automated deployment. The most important artifacts that are released at the end of the build are the Docker image and the compiled Kubeflow template. The Docker image is released to the Google Cloud Artifact Registry and we store the Kubeflow template in a dedicated Google Cloud Storage Bucket, fully versioned and secured. This way, all the components we need to run a Vertex AI Pipeline are available once we run a pipeline (manually or scheduled).

To schedule pipelines, we developed a dedicated Cloud Function that has the permissions to run the pipeline. This Function listens to a Pub/Sub topic where we can publish messages with a defined schema that indicates which pipeline to run with which parameters. These messages are published from a simple cron job that runs according to a set schedule on Google Kubernetes Engine. This way, we have a decoupled and secure environment for scheduling pipelines, using fully-supported and managed infrastructure.

Abstracting Vertex AI services with a shared library

We abstracted the relevant Vertex AI services currently in use with a thin shared Python library to support the teams that develop new software or migrate to Vertex AI. This library, called wf-vertex, contains helper methods, examples, and documentation for working with Vertex AI, as well as guidelines for Vertex AI Feature Store, Pipelines, and Artifact Registry.

One example is the run_pipeline method, which publishes a message with the correct schema to the Pub/Sub topic so that a Vertex AI pipeline is executed. When scheduling a pipeline, the developer only needs to call this method without having to worry about security or infrastructure configuration:

@cli.command()
def trigger_pipeline() -> None:
    from wf_vertex.pipelines.pipeline_runner import run_pipeline

    run_pipeline(
       template_bucket= f"wf-vertex-pipelines-{env}/{TEAM}",  # this is the location of the template, where the CI/CD has written the compiled templates to
       template_filename="sample_pipeline.json",  # this is the filename of the pipeline template to run
       parameter_values= {"import_date": today()}  # it’s possible to add pipeline parameters
)

Most notable is the establishment of a documented best practice for enabling hyperparameter tuning in Vertex AI Pipelines, which speeds up hyperparameter tuning times for our data scientists from two weeks to under one hour.

Because it is not yet possible to combine the outputs of parallel steps (components) in Kubeflow, we designed a mechanism to enable this. It entails defining parameters at runtime and executing the resulting steps in parallel via the Kubeflow parallel-for operator. Finally, we created a step to combine the results of these parallel steps and interpret the results. In turn, this mechanism allows us to select the best model in terms of accuracy from a set of candidates that are trained in parallel:


Our CI/CD, scheduling pipelines, and shared library have reduced the effort of model productionization from more than three months to about four weeks. As we continue to build the shared library, and as our team members continue to gain expertise in using Vertex AI, we expect to further reduce this time to two weeks by the end of 2022.

Looking forward to more MLOps capabilities

Looking ahead, our goal is to fully leverage all the Vertex AI features to continue modernizing our MLOps stack to a point where data scientists are fully autonomous from engineers for any of their model productionization efforts. Next on our radar are Vertex AI Model Registry and Vertex ML Metadata alongside making more use of AutoML capabilities. We’re experimenting with Vertex AI for AutoML models and endpoints to benefit some use cases at Wayfair next to the custom models that we’re currently serving in production.

We’re confident that our MLOps transformation will introduce several capabilities to our team, including: automated data and model monitoring steps to the pipeline, as well as metadata management, and architectural patterns in support of real-time models requiring access to Wayfair’s network. We also look forward to performing continuous training of models by fully automating the ML pipeline that allows us to achieve continuous integration, delivery, and deployment of model prediction services.

We’ll continue to collaborate and invest in building a robust Wayfair-focused Vertex AI shared library. The aim is to eventually migrate 100% of our batch models to Vertex AI. Great things to look forward to on our journey towards MLOps excellence.

Research Reports

Trading and Investment Companies will Increase Consumption of Cloud Services: Study Confirms

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Google Cloud commissioned survey by Coalition Greenwich on capital markets found 5 noteworthy insights on drivers for cloud adoption - common use cases and type of tech used. Read further for an overview of cloud adoption trends across market data.

While some traditional financial services companies have more slowly transitioned to the cloud, capital markets firms have embraced cloud computing across their entire value chains — front-, middle-, and back-office. We wanted to understand the dynamics behind this rapid adoption, the most common use cases, and the types of technology most in use, particularly as it relates to market data. Google Cloud commissioned Coalition Greenwich to survey 102 institutional capital markets professionals — at exchanges, trading systems, data aggregators, data producers, asset managers, hedge funds, and investment banks — in the United States, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. 

Our research found that while there are many drivers, demand for easier accessibility is fueling widespread adoption of cloud-based market data services, and associated trading infrastructures, across the buy side and sell side. In fact, 68% of sell-side and buy-side users find it critical for market data providers to offer public cloud-based data services. At the same time, exchanges, market data providers, aggregators, and trading systems are embracing the cloud as a delivery model by offering access to data directly via their own cloud services, APIs or partners.

Here were five noteworthy takeaways from the study: 

1. Cloud services are becoming ubiquitous for data deliveryToday, the cloud is pervasive, with 93% of exchanges, trading systems and data providers offering cloud-based data and services, according to surveyed executives. Moreover, 100% of those surveyed intend to offer new cloud-based services, such as derived data, in the next 12 months.

Market Data Trends 1.jpg

2. Commercial and investment banks are offering additional connectivity, real-time data feeds, and trading applications delivered via the cloud,demonstrating that it’s not only exchanges, trading systems, and data providers that are moving rapidly to the cloud. Internal use cases abound as well, with 67% of those surveyed consuming cloud-deployed market data, primarily for data analytics. 88% of surveyed sell-side firms intend to consume cloud-based market data services, with digital transformation, data science and quant research as the top use cases.

market data trends 6

3. Buy side firms will consume even more cloud-deployed data. Today, 90% of surveyed buy-side firms are consuming cloud-deployed market data, mostly for portfolio management. 70% of buy-side firms intend to consume more public cloud-based market data services in the next 12 months, adding services such as compliance and regulatory reporting.

Market Data Trends 3.jpg

4. AI/ML, powered by cloud, is moving out of the pilot phase and into mainstream useToday, 50% of exchanges, trading systems, and data providers are offering data products or services powered by AI/ML, and of those, 42% intend to offer AI-powered trade execution and trading analytics services in the next 12 months. Within commercial and investment banks, 55% said they are currently using AI/ML in the cloud, and while that was true for only 14% of overall buy-side respondents, 44% of large buy-side respondents are using it.

Market Data Trends 4.jpg

5. Exchanges, trading systems, and data providers are prioritizing public cloud for internal insights71% of these firms are using the public cloud, mostly for data transmission, processing, analysis, and long-term data storage. Over the next 12 months, 33% of new public cloud workloads will focus on data mining, data insights and advanced analytics, while 28% of new AI/ML tooling and infrastructure investments will focus on faster analytics and risk reviews, and 27% on data quality maintenance.

Market Data Trends 5.jpg
https://storage.googleapis.com/gweb-cloudblog-publish/images/Market_Data_Trends_5.max-2800×2800.jpg

“We see new, dramatic shifts on the adoption of cloud across market data,” said David Easthope, Senior Analyst for Coalition Greenwich. “And we expect further proliferation of cloud-based services and greater consumption across the trading and investing lifecycle.”

Conclusions and future predictions

Based on the survey results, Coalition Greenwich predicts five following trends over the next 12 months:

  1. Exchanges and trading systems will continue to launch a wide array of new cloud-based and possibly cloud exclusive data services across derived data, end of day data, reference data and pricing data.
  2. Data providers will launch new data products such as pre-trade analytics powered by AI/ML in the cloud.
  3. Commercial and investment banks will offer additional connectivity, real-time data feeds, and trading applications delivered via the cloud.
  4. Buy-side firms will consume even more cloud-deployed data, including real-time market data, portfolio management data, and risk analytics.
  5. Exchanges, trading systems and data providers will explore proof-of-concepts around core systems on the cloud. Improvements to AI/ML tooling or infrastructure will ramp up as firms seek more rapid responses to risk initiatives.

To learn more about these findings, download our two full reports, The Future of market data: Distribution and consumption through cloud and AI and Exchanges and data providers: Prioritizing the cloud and AI for internal insights or our short infographic.


Research methodology

The survey was conducted online by Coalition Greenwich on behalf of Google Cloud from March 2021 to April 2021 among 102 executives in North America (n=82), EMEA (n=17) and other (n=3) who are employed full-time and who are participants or influencers in decisions around cloud and/or senior management with a role at a company which is an institutional asset manager, hedge fund, alternative investment manager, exchange and/or trading system, information provider, information aggregator, or other asset manager/asset owner. The survey included wide perspectives from a range of firm size and asset class focus, including equity, fixed income, FX, commodities, multi-asset, and other asset classes.


Foot Notes

1.  We defined market data as direct feeds, consolidated feeds, terminal and desktop products, security and reference data, pricing data, historical data, alternative data, and index data.

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How AI Has Helped Enterprises Adapt Quickly to Moments of Change

The pandemic has clearly caused a tremendous amount of rapid change for businesses across industries and regions.

In this session, Michael Baldwin, Head of Product – Financial Services, Google Cloud speaks about ways that artificial intelligence has helped enterprises adapt to those changes.

He will cover trends that Google Cloud experts are witnessing as they work with enterprises and the impact those trends have on key industries.

Some of these include:

  • Significant shifts in demand
  • Increased cost pressures
  • Supply chain uncertainty
  • Spikes in customer support cases
  • Virtual work for continuity of services
  • Accelerated digital transformation  

He then demonstrates, with specific examples, how AI can helpful in these moments of change.

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Download the Forrester Study to Explore the Benefits of AI for IT Operations in Cloud Environment

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Download this Forrester study and learn why 91 percent of implementations of AIOps to address at least one cloud operational issue were able to expand rapidly!

Organizations are currently modernizing their businesses in order to meet the increasing complexity of today’s business landscape. In effect, business leaders must evaluate the best way to mitigate the challenges which plague their cloud operations, all while meeting customers’ growing expectations around digital experience (DX) through agility, automation, and proactive incident avoidance. 

In this commissioned study, “Modernize With AIOps To Maximize Your Impact”, Forrester Consulting surveyed organizations worldwide to better understand how they’re approaching artificial intelligence for IT operations (AIOps) in their cloud environments, and what kind of benefits they’re seeing. 

Within this July 2021 study, you’ll see that AIOps systems and principles are here to help. It covers how AIOps increases efficiency and productivity across day-to-day operations, and how businesses are taking note. In fact, 91% of respondents have implemented AIOps to address at least one cloud operations issue, and expansion is set to skyrocket. Those that wait to act, risk losing out on the efficacy of their cloud investment and falling behind their more efficient competitors.

AIOps.jpg

As you can see in the image above, there is a plethora of great information in this complimentary study. So, if you’re looking to enhance your cloud operations and/or adopt AIOps within your organization, be sure to download this free study today.

Blog

Analytics Hub for Secure Data Sharing and Analytics Unlocks True Data Value and Insights

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Google Cloud announces a new fully managed service, Analytics Hub to help businesses unlock real value of data sharing for insights and driving business value. The Analytics Hub is built to offer businesses a rich data ecosystem with analytics-ready datasets, better control and monitoring on the data usage, self-service way to access valuable and trusted data assets, and data assets monetization without the overhead of building and managing the infrastructure. The new service offering will be available for preview in Q3. Learn more.

Customers tell us that sharing and exchanging data with other organizations is a critical element of their analytics strategy, but it’s hamstrung by unreliable data and processes, and only getting harder with security threats and privacy regulations on the rise. 

Furthermore, traditional data sharing techniques use batch data pipelines that are expensive to run, create late arriving data, and can break with any changes to the source data. They also create multiple copies of data, which brings unnecessary costs and can bypass data governance processes. These techniques do not offer features for data monetization, such as managing subscriptions and entitlements. Altogether, these challenges mean that organizations are unable to realize the full potential of transforming their business with shared data.

To address these limitations, we are introducing Analytics Hub, a new fully managed service, available in Q3, in preview, that helps you unlock the value of data sharing, leading to new insights and increased business value. With Analytics Hub you get:

  • A rich data ecosystem by publishing and subscribing to analytics-ready datasets. 
  • Control and monitoring over how your data is being used, because data is shared in one place.
  • A self-service way to access valuable and trusted data assets, including data provided by Google. For example, a unique dataset from Google Search Trends will be available, that you can query and combine with your own data.
  • An easy way to monetize your data assets without the overhead of building and managing the infrastructure. 

Built on a decade of cross-organizational sharing

While Analytics Hub is a new service, it builds on BigQuery, Google’s petabyte-scale, serverless cloud data warehouse. BigQuery’s unique architecture provides separation between compute and storage, enabling data publishers to share data with as many subscribers as you want without having to make multiple copies of your data. With BigQuery, there are no servers to deploy or manage, which means that data consumers get immediate value from shared data. Data can be provided and consumed in real-time using the streaming capabilities of BigQuery and you can leverage the built in machine learning, geospatial, and natural language capabilities of BigQuery or take advantage of the native business intelligence support with tools like LookerGoogle Sheets, and Data Studio.

BigQuery has had cross-organizational, in-place data sharing capabilities since it was introduced in 2010. We took a look at usage metrics in BigQuery and found that over a 7 day period in April, we had over 3,000 different organizations sharing over 200 petabytes of data. These numbers don’t include data sharing between departments within the same organization.

BQ data sharing.jpg

As you can see, data sharing in BigQuery is already popular. But we want to make it easier and even more scalable.

Raising the bar on data sharing 

To make data sharing easier and more scalable in BigQuery, Analytics Hub introduces the  concepts of shared datasets and exchanges. As a data publisher, you create shared datasets that contain the views of data that you want to deliver to your subscribers. Next, you create exchanges, which are used to organize and secure shared datasets. By default, exchanges are completely private, which means that only the users and groups that you give access to can view or subscribe to the data. You can also create internal exchanges or leverage public exchanges provided by Google. Finally, you publish shared datasets into an exchange to make them available to subscribers. 

Data subscribers search through the datasets that are available across all exchanges for which they have access and subscribe to relevant datasets. This creates a linked dataset in their project that they can query and join with their own data. Subscribers pay for the queries that they run against the data while the publisher pays for the storage of the data. Data providers can add new data, new tables, or new columns to the shared dataset and these will be immediately available to subscribers. In addition, the publisher can track subscribers, disable subscriptions, and see aggregated usage information for the shared data. 

Analytics Hub makes it easy for you to publish, discover, and subscribe to valuable datasets that you can combine with your own data to derive unique insights. Here are some types of data that will be available through Analytics Hub:

  • Public datasets: Easy access to the existing repository of over 200 public datasets, including data about weather and climate, cryptocurrency, healthcare and life sciences, and transportation. 
  • Google datasets: Unique, freely-available datasets from Google. One example of this is the COVID-19 community mobility dataset. Another example is the forthcoming Google Trends dataset, which will provide the top 25 search terms and top 25 rising search terms over a 5 year window in 210 distinct locations in the US. Trends data can be used by everyone in the organization to gain insights into what customers care about.
  • Commercial (paid for) datasets: We are working with leading commercial data providers to bring their data products to Analytics Hub. If you are interested in delivering your data via Analytics Hub, we’re also introducing Data Gravity, an initiative that provides storage benefits and new distribution paths for data published through Analytics Hub. 
  • Internal datasets: We know that data sharing can be challenging in larger organizations. Analytics Hub can be used for internal data, for example, to share standardized customer demographics with your sales engineering and data science teams.

Customers and partners using Analytics Hub

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“Google Search Trends data has always been an important tool for our WPP agency data teams. At WPP we believe that data variety is a superpower which is why we are excited to use the new Trends dataset availability within BigQuery, plus the launch of Analytics Hub. The best creativity in the world is informed by data insights, and influenced by what people search for, so the operational efficiencies we’ll gain via the Analytics Hub and the insights we can drive with Trends data are just phenomenal.”
Di Mayze Global Head of Data and AI, WPP

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“Equifax Ignite is our shared data analytics environment within our Equifax data fabric. We are excited to partner with Google to leverage Analytics Hub and BigQuery to deliver data to over 400 statisticians and data modelers as well as securely sharing data with our partner financial institutions.”
Kumar Menon, SVP Data Fabric and Decision Science, Equifax

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“The flow of data and insights between our teams at Deloitte and our clients is paramount for building truly transformational data cultures. With its purpose-built architecture for secure data exchanges and sharing analytics resources, Google Cloud’s Analytics Hub can help provide significant operational efficiencies for how Deloitte teams support our clients’ data-driven initiatives within their industry ecosystems. It will also help minimize the worries about scale, privacy and security, or the administrative burden associated with each.”
Navin Warerkar, Managing Director, Deloitte Consulting LLP, and US Google Cloud Data & Analytics GTM Lead

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“Crux Informatics is proud to partner with Google to support the launch of Analytics Hub, removing friction for those who need access to analytics-ready data. With thousands of datasets from over 140 sources, Crux Informatics will accelerate access to data on Analytics Hub and together provide a more efficient and cost effective solution to deliver datasets in Google Cloud’s ecosystem.”
Will Freiberg, CEO, Crux Informatics

Next steps for Analytics Hub

This is just the beginning for Analytics Hub. As we get to preview and general availability, we will be adding additional capabilities, including workflows for publishing and subscribing, publishing analytics assets (Looker Blocks, Data Studio reports, Connected Google Sheets) along with the shared data, the ability for data publishers to specify query restrictions on the usage of their data, and making it easy for data publishers to create sandbox environments for subscribers to work with their data, even if they are not yet on Google Cloud. We will provide features in Analytics Hub for monetization of data, including managing subscriptions, data entitlements, and billing.

Please sign up for the preview, which is scheduled to be available in the third quarter of 2021. In the meantime, you can learn more about BigQuery and how to leverage its built-in data sharing capabilities. Please go to g.co/cloud/analytics-hub to register your interest in Analytics Hub.

Trend Analysis

Google Research: Themes from 2021 and Beyond

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Read the blogpost to catch up on Google's research on AI and five emerging ML-related trends that are poised to redefine the way systems interact around the world with new product features and accomplish more with ML models.


Posted by Jeff Dean, Senior Fellow and SVP of Google Research, on behalf of the entire Google Research community

Over the last several decades, I’ve witnessed a lot of change in the fields of machine learning (ML) and computer science. Early approaches, which often fell short, eventually gave rise to modern approaches that have been very successful. Following that long-arc pattern of progress, I think we’ll see a number of exciting advances over the next several years, advances that will ultimately benefit the lives of billions of people with greater impact than ever before. In this post, I’ll highlight five areas where ML is poised to have such impact. For each, I’ll discuss related research (mostly from 2021) and the directions and progress we’ll likely see in the next few years.


· Trend 1: More Capable, General-Purpose ML Models
· Trend 2: Continued Efficiency Improvements for ML
· Trend 3: ML Is Becoming More Personally and Communally Beneficial
· Trend 4: Growing Benefits of ML in Science, Health and Sustainability
· Trend 5: Deeper and Broader Understanding of ML

Trend 1: More Capable, General-Purpose ML Models


Researchers are training larger, more capable machine learning models than ever before. For example, just in the last couple of years models in the language domain have grown from billions of parameters trained on tens of billions of tokens of data (e.g., the 11B parameter T5 model), to hundreds of billions or trillions of parameters trained on trillions of tokens of data (e.g., dense models such as OpenAI’s 175B parameter GPT-3 model and DeepMind’s 280B parameter Gopher model, and sparse models such as Google’s 600B parameter GShard model and 1.2T parameter GLaM model). These increases in dataset and model size have led to significant increases in accuracy for a wide variety of language tasks, as shown by across-the-board improvements on standard natural language processing (NLP) benchmark tasks (as predicted by work on neural scaling laws for language models and machine translation models).

Many of these advanced models are focused on the single but important modality of written language and have shown state-of-the-art results in language understanding benchmarks and open-ended conversational abilities, even across multiple tasks in a domain. They have also shown exciting capabilities to generalize to new language tasks with relatively little training data, in some cases, with few to no training examples for a new task. A couple of examples include improved long-form question answering, zero-label learning in NLP, and our LaMDA model, which demonstrates a sophisticated ability to carry on open-ended conversations that maintain significant context across multiple turns of dialog.

A dialog with LaMDA mimicking a Weddell seal with the preset grounding prompt, “Hi I’m a weddell seal. Do you have any questions for me?” The model largely holds down a dialog in character.
(Weddell Seal image cropped from Wikimedia CC licensed image.)

Transformer models are also having a major impact in image, video, and speech models, all of which also benefit significantly from scale, as predicted by work on scaling laws for visual transformer models. Transformers for image recognition and for video classification are achieving state-of-the-art results on many benchmarks, and we’ve also demonstrated that co-training models on both image data and video data can improve performance on video tasks compared with video data alone. We’ve developed sparse, axial attention mechanisms for image and video transformers that use computation more efficiently, found better ways of tokenizing images for visual transformer models, and improved our understanding of visual transformer methods by examining how they operate compared with convolutional neural networks. Combining transformer models with convolutional operations has shown significant benefits in visual as well as speech recognition tasks.

The outputs of generative models are also substantially improving. This is most apparent in generative models for images, which have made significant strides over the last few years. For example, recent models have demonstrated the ability to create realistic images given just a category (e.g., “irish setter” or “streetcar”, if you desire), can “fill in” a low-resolution image to create a natural-looking high-resolution counterpart (“computer, enhance!”), and can even create natural-looking aerial nature scenes of arbitrary length. As another example, images can be converted to a sequence of discrete tokens that can then be synthesized at high fidelity with an autoregressive generative model.

Example of a cascade diffusion models that generate novel images from a given category and then use those as the seed to create high-resolution examples: the first model generates a low resolution image, and the rest perform upsampling to the final high resolution image.
The SR3 super-resolution diffusion model takes as input a low-resolution image, and builds a corresponding high resolution image from pure noise.

Because these are powerful capabilities that come with great responsibility, we carefully vet potential applications of these sorts of models against our AI Principles.

Beyond advanced single-modality models, we are also starting to see large-scale multi-modal models. These are some of the most advanced models to date because they can accept multiple different input modalities (e.g., language, images, speech, video) and, in some cases, produce different output modalities, for example, generating images from descriptive sentences or paragraphs, or describing the visual content of images in human languages. This is an exciting direction because like the real world, some things are easier to learn in data that is multimodal (e.g., reading about something and seeing a demonstration is more useful than just reading about it). As such, pairing images and text can help with multi-lingual retrieval tasks, and better understanding of how to pair text and image inputs can yield improved results for image captioning tasks. Similarly, jointly training on visual and textual data can also help improve accuracy and robustness on visual classification tasks, while co-training on image, video, and audio tasks improves generalization performance for all modalities. There are also tantalizing hints that natural language can be used as an input for image manipulation, telling robots how to interact with the world and controlling other software systems, portending potential changes to how user interfaces are developed. Modalities handled by these models will include speech, sounds, images, video, and languages, and may even extend to structured data, knowledge graphs, and time series data.

Example of a vision-based robotic manipulation system that is able to generalize to novel tasks. Left: The robot is performing a task described in natural language to the robot as “place grapes in ceramic bowl”, without the model being trained on that specific task. Right: As on the left, but with the novel task description of “place bottle in tray”.

Often these models are trained using self-supervised learning approaches, where the model learns from observations of “raw” data that has not been curated or labeled, e.g., language models used in GPT-3 and GLaM, the self-supervised speech model BigSSL, the visual contrastive learning model SimCLR, and the multimodal contrastive model VATTSelf-supervised learning allows a large speech recognition model to match the previous Voice Search automatic speech recognition (ASR) benchmark accuracy while using only 3% of the annotated training data. These trends are exciting because they can substantially reduce the effort required to enable ML for a particular task, and because they make it easier (though by no means trivial) to train models on more representative data that better reflects different subpopulations, regions, languages, or other important dimensions of representation.

All of these trends are pointing in the direction of training highly capable general-purpose models that can handle multiple modalities of data and solve thousands or millions of tasks. By building in sparsity, so that the only parts of a model that are activated for a given task are those that have been optimized for it, these multimodal models can be made highly efficient. Over the next few years, we are pursuing this vision in a next-generation architecture and umbrella effort called Pathways. We expect to see substantial progress in this area, as we combine together many ideas that to date have been pursued relatively independently.

Pathways: a depiction of a single model we are working towards that can generalize across millions of tasks.

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