Lufthansa: Wind Forecasting with Google Cloud ML Helps Increase On-time Flights
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The magnitude and direction of wind significantly impacts airport operations, and Lufthansa Group Airlines are no exception. A particularly troublesome kind is called BISE: it is a cold, dry wind that blows from the northeast to southwest in Switzerland, through the Swiss Plateau. Its effects on flight schedules can be severe, such as forcing planes to change runways, which can create a chain reaction of flight delays and possible cancellations. In Zurich Airport, in particular, BISE can potentially reduce capacity by up to 30%, leading to further flight delays and cancellations, and to millions in lost revenue for Lufthansa (as well as dissatisfaction among their passengers).
Being able to predict this kind of wind well in advance lets the Network Operations Control team schedule flight operations optimally across runways and timeslots, to minimize disruptions to the schedule. However, predicting speed and magnitude can be incredibly difficult to model and thus to predict— which is why Lufthansa reached out to Google Cloud.
Machine learning (ML) can help airports and airlines to better anticipate and manage these types of disruptive weather events. In this blog post, we’ll explore an experiment Lufthansa did together with Google Cloud and its Vertex AI Forecast service, accurately predicting BISE hours in advance, with more than 40% relative improvement in accuracy over internal heuristics, all within days instead of the months it often takes to do ML projects of this magnitude and performance.
“Being impressed with Google’s technology and prowess in the field of AI and machine learning, we were certain that my working together with their expert, to combine our technology with their domain expertise, we would achieve the best results possible,“ said Christian Most, Senior Director, Digital Operations Optimization at Lufthansa Group.
Collecting and preparing the dataset
The goal of Lufthansa and Google Cloud’s project was to forecast the BISE wind for Zurich’s Kloten Airport using deep learning-based ML approaches, then to see if the prediction surpasses internal heuristics-driven solutions and gauge the ease of use and practicality of the deep learning approach in production.
Since deep learning-based techniques require large datasets, the project relies on Meteoswiss simulation data, a dataset consisting of multiple meteorological sensor measurements collected from several weather stations across Switzerland over the past five years. By using this dataset, we obtained data on factors like wind direction, speed, pressure, temperature, humidity and more, at a 10 min resolution, along with some information about the location of the weather stations, such as altitude. These factors, which we hypothesized to be predictive of the BISE, ended up carrying valuable signals, as we would see later.
This collected data was next subjected to an extensive cleaning and feature engineering process using Vertex AI Workbench, in order to prepare the final dataset for training. The cleaning phase included steps to drop the features, or rows, that contained too many missing values, or failed statistical tests for entropy, etc. Since the direction of wind is a circular feature (between 0 and 360 degrees), this column/feature was replaced with two features: the corresponding sine and cosine embedding. The dataset was then flattened such that the columns contained all the relevant features and sensor measurements from all the weather stations at a particular 10-minute interval.
Since the target variable — i.e,. BISE — was not directly available, we engineered a proxy target variable for BISE called “tailwind speed around runway,” which above a certain threshold indicates the presence of BISE along the runway.
Forecasting wind in the Cloud
Once the dataset was ready, Lufthansa and Google Cloud evaluated several options before deciding to experiment and tune Vertex AI Forecast, Google’s AutoML-powered forecasting service, in order to achieve optimum results. Vertex Forecast is capable of the required feature engineering, neural architecture search, and hyper parameter tuning, and it is managed by Google Cloud to score in the top 2.5% in the M5 Forecasting Competition on Kaggle, in a completely automated fashion. These qualities made it an excellent choice for Lufthansa, to reduce the manual overhead of creating, deploying, and maintaining top performing deep learning models.
The raw data files were loaded from cloud storage, preprocessed on Vertex AI Workbench. Then, a training pipeline was initiated on Vertex AI Pipelines, which performed the following steps in sequence:
The .csv data file was loaded from Cloud Storage into a Vertex AI managed dataset.
A Vertex AI forecasting training job was initiated with the dataset, and it was also registered as a model in the Vertex AI Model Registry.
Upon completion, the model was evaluated on the test set, and the model’s predictions and the input features and ground truth of the test set, were stored in a user-defined table in BigQuery. Several test metrics were also available on the service and model dashboards.
One of the biggest challenges was the severe imbalance in the dataset, as measurements with BISE were very far and few in between. In order to account for this, instances where BISE occurred, as well the occurrences temporally close to them, were upweighted using weights calculated with methods including Inverse of Square Root of Number of Samples (ISNS), Effective Number of Samples (ENS), and Gaussian reweighting. The formulas for the methods are given below. These weights were supplied as separate columns in the dataset, and were iteratively used thereafter by the service as the “weight” column.
ISNS
ENS
Weighted gaussian
Results and next steps
In the above figures, the x-axis represents the forecast horizon and the Y-axis shows the respective metrics (Recall/F1-score). As shown after multiple experiments, we can see Vertex AI Forecast achieved higher recall and precision t (red bar), outperforming Lufthansa’s internal baseline heuristics, with the performance gap widening steadily as the forecast horizon extends further into the future. At the two-hour mark, our custom-configured Vertex AI Forecast model improved by 40% relative to the internal heuristics and 1700% compared to the random guess baseline. As we saw with other experiments, at a six-hour forecast horizon, the performance gap widens even more, with Vertex AI Forecast in the lead. Since forecasting BISE a few hours in advance is very beneficial to prevent flight delays for Lufthansa, this was a great solution for them.
“We are very excited to be able to not only do accurate long term forecasts for the BISE, but also that Vertex AI Forecasting makes training and deploying such models much easier and faster, allowing us to innovate rapidly to serve our customers and stakeholders in the best possible manner,” said Swiss Oliver Rueegg, Product Owner, Swiss International Airlines.
Lufthansa plans to explore productionizing this solution by integrating it into their Operations Decision Support Suite, which is used by the network controllers in the Operations Control Center in Kloten, as well as to work closely with Google’s specialists to integrate both Vertex AI Forecast and other of Google’s AI/ML offerings for their use cases.
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Google Cloud’s managed database services can help you innovate faster and reduce operational overhead. The migration tools and resources included in this whitepaper will help you plan your migration.
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AI-as-a-Service is Here. It’s Really Almost Plug-and-Play
The magnitude and direction of wind significantly impacts airport operations, and Lufthansa Group Airlines are no exception. A particularly troublesome kind is called BISE: it is a cold, dry wind that blows from the northeast to southwest in Switzerland, through the Swiss Plateau. Its effects on flight schedules can be severe, such as forcing planes to change runways, which can create a chain reaction of flight delays and possible cancellations. In Zurich Airport, in particular, BISE can potentially reduce capacity by up to 30%, leading to further flight delays and cancellations, and to millions in lost revenue for Lufthansa (as well as dissatisfaction among their passengers).
Being able to predict this kind of wind well in advance lets the Network Operations Control team schedule flight operations optimally across runways and timeslots, to minimize disruptions to the schedule. However, predicting speed and magnitude can be incredibly difficult to model and thus to predict— which is why Lufthansa reached out to Google Cloud.
Machine learning (ML) can help airports and airlines to better anticipate and manage these types of disruptive weather events. In this blog post, we’ll explore an experiment Lufthansa did together with Google Cloud and its Vertex AI Forecast service, accurately predicting BISE hours in advance, with more than 40% relative improvement in accuracy over internal heuristics, all within days instead of the months it often takes to do ML projects of this magnitude and performance.
“Being impressed with Google’s technology and prowess in the field of AI and machine learning, we were certain that my working together with their expert, to combine our technology with their domain expertise, we would achieve the best results possible,“ said Christian Most, Senior Director, Digital Operations Optimization at Lufthansa Group.
Collecting and preparing the dataset
The goal of Lufthansa and Google Cloud’s project was to forecast the BISE wind for Zurich’s Kloten Airport using deep learning-based ML approaches, then to see if the prediction surpasses internal heuristics-driven solutions and gauge the ease of use and practicality of the deep learning approach in production.
Since deep learning-based techniques require large datasets, the project relies on Meteoswiss simulation data, a dataset consisting of multiple meteorological sensor measurements collected from several weather stations across Switzerland over the past five years. By using this dataset, we obtained data on factors like wind direction, speed, pressure, temperature, humidity and more, at a 10 min resolution, along with some information about the location of the weather stations, such as altitude. These factors, which we hypothesized to be predictive of the BISE, ended up carrying valuable signals, as we would see later.
This collected data was next subjected to an extensive cleaning and feature engineering process using Vertex AI Workbench, in order to prepare the final dataset for training. The cleaning phase included steps to drop the features, or rows, that contained too many missing values, or failed statistical tests for entropy, etc. Since the direction of wind is a circular feature (between 0 and 360 degrees), this column/feature was replaced with two features: the corresponding sine and cosine embedding. The dataset was then flattened such that the columns contained all the relevant features and sensor measurements from all the weather stations at a particular 10-minute interval.
Since the target variable — i.e,. BISE — was not directly available, we engineered a proxy target variable for BISE called “tailwind speed around runway,” which above a certain threshold indicates the presence of BISE along the runway.
Forecasting wind in the Cloud
Once the dataset was ready, Lufthansa and Google Cloud evaluated several options before deciding to experiment and tune Vertex AI Forecast, Google’s AutoML-powered forecasting service, in order to achieve optimum results. Vertex Forecast is capable of the required feature engineering, neural architecture search, and hyper parameter tuning, and it is managed by Google Cloud to score in the top 2.5% in the M5 Forecasting Competition on Kaggle, in a completely automated fashion. These qualities made it an excellent choice for Lufthansa, to reduce the manual overhead of creating, deploying, and maintaining top performing deep learning models.
The raw data files were loaded from cloud storage, preprocessed on Vertex AI Workbench. Then, a training pipeline was initiated on Vertex AI Pipelines, which performed the following steps in sequence:
The .csv data file was loaded from Cloud Storage into a Vertex AI managed dataset.
A Vertex AI forecasting training job was initiated with the dataset, and it was also registered as a model in the Vertex AI Model Registry.
Upon completion, the model was evaluated on the test set, and the model’s predictions and the input features and ground truth of the test set, were stored in a user-defined table in BigQuery. Several test metrics were also available on the service and model dashboards.
One of the biggest challenges was the severe imbalance in the dataset, as measurements with BISE were very far and few in between. In order to account for this, instances where BISE occurred, as well the occurrences temporally close to them, were upweighted using weights calculated with methods including Inverse of Square Root of Number of Samples (ISNS), Effective Number of Samples (ENS), and Gaussian reweighting. The formulas for the methods are given below. These weights were supplied as separate columns in the dataset, and were iteratively used thereafter by the service as the “weight” column.
ISNS
ENS
Weighted gaussian
Results and next steps
In the above figures, the x-axis represents the forecast horizon and the Y-axis shows the respective metrics (Recall/F1-score). As shown after multiple experiments, we can see Vertex AI Forecast achieved higher recall and precision t (red bar), outperforming Lufthansa’s internal baseline heuristics, with the performance gap widening steadily as the forecast horizon extends further into the future. At the two-hour mark, our custom-configured Vertex AI Forecast model improved by 40% relative to the internal heuristics and 1700% compared to the random guess baseline. As we saw with other experiments, at a six-hour forecast horizon, the performance gap widens even more, with Vertex AI Forecast in the lead. Since forecasting BISE a few hours in advance is very beneficial to prevent flight delays for Lufthansa, this was a great solution for them.
“We are very excited to be able to not only do accurate long term forecasts for the BISE, but also that Vertex AI Forecasting makes training and deploying such models much easier and faster, allowing us to innovate rapidly to serve our customers and stakeholders in the best possible manner,” said Swiss Oliver Rueegg, Product Owner, Swiss International Airlines.
Lufthansa plans to explore productionizing this solution by integrating it into their Operations Decision Support Suite, which is used by the network controllers in the Operations Control Center in Kloten, as well as to work closely with Google’s specialists to integrate both Vertex AI Forecast and other of Google’s AI/ML offerings for their use cases.
Home Depot’s Interconnected Retail Experience by Virtue of Google Cloud Migration for SAP Applications
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With nearly 2,300 stores, The Home Depot is the world’s largest home-improvement chain — a brand that professional contractors and DIYers alike have come to depend on. The home improvement industry continues to experience unprecedented demand and dramatic increases in online ordering accompanied by expanding consumer expectations for things like curbside pickup and same day delivery. The Home Depot’s decision to migrate to cloud-based infrastructure, including the migration of the company’s SAP applications on Google Cloud which began in 2017, has set it up for success in an increasingly digital world, and helped the company adapt to changing market conditions quickly.
Interconnected retail at scale
Building on a strong customer-first philosophy, The Home Depot aims to create what it calls interconnected retail—allowing customers to shop however, whenever, and wherever they want. “So many companies are focused on omni-channel retail,” explains Sam Moses, Vice President of Corporate Systems. “At The Home Depot, we wanted to take it to the next level. Interconnected retail puts the customer at the center of everything and enables them to shop in store, online, or both. Customers can begin a transaction online and continue in-store, or vice-versa.”
To support this strategy, the company’s SAP environment needed to be more agile. Running everything on-premises, from central finance to POS systems, meant that The Home Depot’s IT teams experienced redundancy and repetitive, manual processes. Their data warehouse needed an upgrade to process and analyze growing and increasingly diverse data sets. The Home Depot chose to migrate its SAP environment to Google Cloud to support both the velocity and scale needed for the business as well as critical analytics capabilities needed for its bold digital initiatives. “We chose Google Cloud to support our SAP implementation. Our decision had a lot to do with the relationship between Google Cloud and SAP and also for the applications and services that are offered by Google Cloud, like BigQuery, which are helping to enable data and analytics within our organization,” Moses explains.
After migrating its SAP applications—including S/4HANA, its customer activity repository (CAR), general ledger, e-commerce system, enterprise data warehouse and more to Google Cloud, the company now has the speed, scale and flexibility to tackle enormous spikes in the business, all while staying fully available for their customers. Additionally, The Home Depot was able to transform its financial systems and make them more agile to deliver critical information across multiple business functions in real time.
Maximizing data insights to support customer experiences
By migrating to Google Cloud, The Home Depot is leveraging Google Cloud analytics to build the industry’s most efficient supply chain including more robust demand forecasting, supplier lead times, estimated delivery times and more, all while maintaining better security than before. “We experienced unprecedented change in our customers’ behavior and their buying patterns, which puts a lot of pressure on our supply chain,” explains Moses. “So having the ability to leverage data and analytics gives us insights to know exactly what it is that our customers need.”
The company’s analysts now use BigQuery ML for machine learning directly against the company’s BigQuery data and use AutoML to determine the best model for predictions. The Home Depot’s engineers have also adapted BigQuery to monitor, analyze, and act on application performance data across all its stores and warehouses in real time—capabilities that were not as seamless in the on-premises environment.
With hundreds of projects on Google Cloud, The Home Depot’s cloud journey is well on track, but the company is always looking to the future. “As our customers’ needs have continued to evolve, and as technology has continued to evolve, our relationship with Google will continue to advance — to be able to innovate together, to be able to find new solutions together, to better serve our customers.”
Learn more about how The Home Depot is renovating its retail operation with SAP on Google Cloud.
How Data Efficiency with Google Cloud Empower Governments to Make Data-first Decisions
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Presently, every government agency has to take a hard look at their data capabilities and decide whether their current infrastructure supports their workflow. For many, it doesn’t. Most data systems are developed with a strict set of parameters in mind before implementation, which can limit flexibility and long-term use. Particularly during a crisis, flexible “living systems” offer tremendous advantages as they’re able to change capacity rapidly. Building living data systems with the cloud in mind allows organizations to respond to a changing world with confidence.
Last summer, the Government Business Council conducted a survey of government employees to understand the impacts of data efficiency on government operations. The report Built to Last: A Survey on Organizational Data Efficiency in Times of Crisis offers key insights into organizational efficacy and whether organizations can adapt to a crisis at speed. It also highlights differences between traditional data systems and living data systems.
Data needs to be readily available
When the pandemic first hit, many agencies needed to create or transition their systems to allow employees to work remotely. This change tested the limits of existing data systems. Even after finding a cloud service provider, agencies encountered the challenges of migrating their data to the cloud.
Government organizations had decades of data stored in paper records. Most have been working to transfer these records to a digital format, but the process has been slow. They are also faced with collecting sizable amounts of data in real time from their ongoing services, which involves interfacing with the public, external vendors, or third-party institutions.
Building the cloud into a flexible data system can solve both issues. Old records can be digitized and given an easy-to-access home for those who need them. Incoming data, both internal and external, can be made accessible as well. Migrating data to the cloud also doubles as a way to create backups of raw data, adding an extra layer of security. Most importantly, building in the cloud unlocked the capacity to scale when demand rises.
Data should be updated in real-time
One of the key takeaways from the Government Business Council report is the fact that agencies are better able to adapt at speed when data efficiencies are higher. 74% of organizations with pandemic related functions reported a moderate to severe impact to their jobs at the onset of the pandemic. Of those organizations, the ones reporting their data efficiency as “very good” have largely already recovered. That adaptability directly affects an agency’s ability to make informed decisions during a time of a crisis.
Having a real-time data solution in place lets agencies make near real-time decisions. A great example of this from early in the pandemic is vaccine distribution. Google Cloud supported multiple states, such as the State of Wyoming, in distributing vaccines efficiently while handling challenges such as reaching rural populations. Data systems that gathered real-time patient data made a difference in the number of vaccines distributed. Knowing population data and patient risk factors enabled quick and effective decision-making.
A global pandemic is far from the only crisis that needs effective data analytics. Natural disasters, food deserts, public health issues, and more can all be handled more efficiently by having real-time data at hand. Effective data analytics systems are the digital equal of “having your ear to the ground” in each community. They provide valuable insights into what people need.
Data needs to be accessible and easy to use
Making data easy to work with and understand sets phenomenal data systems apart from functional ones. Having data in the cloud is a great first step, but agencies need to be able to easily access and quickly use the data to accomplish their goals. This is where traditional data systems fail most often. Traditional IT systems and data strategies are designed for a specific purpose, usually identified before development and implementation begin. That means that when the data living in those systems needs to be used differently, adapting to new requirements can be difficult.
Data can often feel “locked” in traditional systems; the data is there, but there’s no way to get to it or work with it in a way that meets the needs of a crisis. Flexible data systems address this by allowing for greater accessibility. Google Cloud, for example, has customizable tools, such as Contact Center AI and Document AI, which let agencies work with data in ever-changing ways. This also produces greater data transparency since data sets can be worked with and accessed more easily.
Governments need to respond to the changing needs of their constituents in emergencies. While traditional data systems can handle slowly shifting demands on the system, they do not serve agencies well in a crisis. When urgency, accuracy, and accessibility all matter, flexible systems rise to the challenge. The pandemic has pushed agencies to adapt in real time, and many have realized they need a system that adapts with them.
Google Cloud has a suite of tools to create integrated data ecosystems. These ecosystems can scale with increasing demand, meet dynamic development needs, and adapt to a changing landscape. Data-first decision-making is a core tenet of “living data systems.” Google Cloud data systems have handled everything from administering vaccines to detecting fraud. In each of these applications, a core tenet of data-first decision making was implemented at scale.
For more insights on how flexible data systems help the public sector, download the full report “Built to Last: A Survey on Organizational Data Efficiency in Times of Crisis.”
Gyfted: Finding the Right Man for the Job Using Google Cloud AI/ML Tools
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It’s no secret that many organizations and job seekers find the hiring process exhausting. It can be time consuming, costly, and somewhat risky for both parties. Those are just some of the experiences we wanted to change when we started Gyfted, a pre-vetted talent marketplace for people who complete tech training or degree programs and are looking for the right career move. At the same time, we’re helping businesses save time and improve recruiting outcomes with our automated candidate screening and sourcing tools.
Our vision is clear: To take a candidate through one structured hiring process, and then put them in front of thousands of companies. It’s similar to the common app system in higher education. Sounds simple, but it is a herculean technical and UX task. To succeed we had to combine advanced psychometric testing, machine learning, the latest in behavioral design, and develop the highest quality structured, relational dataset to represent candidate and manager profiles and preferences on our network. Fortunately, we were cofounded by world-leading experts in these areas including Dr. Michal Kosinski, one of the world’s top computational psychologists, and Adam Szefer, a gifted young technologist. We’ve been joined by a group of equally talented employees, most of whom work remotely in Poland, US, Switzerland, UK, Israel, and Ukraine.
The influence of dating platforms and matching
When seeking inspiration, we were influenced by the success of dating platforms, especially Bumble with its focus on commitment. These platforms have done a great job using design to match people together.
We like to think we’re doing the same for recruiters and candidates in terms of not only role and culture fit matching, but also through a fundamental feature of Gyfted, which is that our job-seekers are anonymous. This helps recruiters meet one of their goals today, which is to minimize bias in the hiring process and enable objective, diversity-oriented recruiting.
Another of our unique selling points is that we conduct candidate screening that is gamified and automated, with a structured interview, where the interview remains with the candidate’s profile. We roughly estimate that just for the 15 million open jobs on LinkedIn, if companies fill in 50% of those via external recruiting, and conduct a screening interview with 10 candidates per job filled at $50/hour paid to an employee to do the screening, that’s $3.75 billion and 75 million hours in direct costs. This is on top of applying for jobs, selecting CVs, and coordinating the process, which takes an even bigger financial and time toll on both applicants and recruiters. Instead, it would be better to take one interview for 1000 companies. The impact of what we want to achieve with our vision is enormous.
We also offer career discovery and career search tools for job candidates. This includes free, personalized feedback for every job-seeker. Right now, we’re aiming the service at students, bootcamp graduates and juniors, helping them to land jobs in tech and the creative industry at large. Next, we’ll expand into mid and senior roles. In the long run we want to reshape how recruiting happens through a common app that saves everyone in the market significant time and resources, helping people find jobs not only faster, but jobs that truly fit them.
Developing advanced AI applications with Google Cloud
We obtained our original funding from angel and institutional investors, and we were selected into the Fall 2021 batch of StartX, the non-profit start-up accelerator and founder community associated with Stanford University. But like most startups our budgets are tight, and we need to find ways to operate as efficiently as possible, especially when building out our technology stack and developer environment.
That’s where Google Cloud comes in. It’s a lot more affordable and flexible than competing solutions, and our developers love it. We use Google App Engine for the hosting and development of our applications giving us enormous flexibility. Vertex AI enables us to build, deploy, and scale machine learning models faster, within a unified artificial intelligence platform. On top of that we use Google Vertex AI Workbench as the development environment for the data science workflow, which allows us to have everything that we need to host and develop innovative AI-based applications.
BigQuery, Google Cloud’s serverless data warehouse, is another stand-out solution for us. We use it to crunch big data from all our systems and the UX is very intuitive and easy to use, allowing us to use it across the business and get insights from a wide range of employees, not just technical experts.
Above all, Google Cloud helps us solve the main platform challenges facing Gyfted including scalability and identity management, so we are perfectly positioned for growth. Right now, we handle about 2 million candidate interactions, a volume we expect to grow exponentially. As that number grows, we rely on Google Cloud to help us scale securely and with reliability.
Eliminating bias from the hiring process
Our technology partners have also been integral to helping us get to an advanced stage of our beta program. MongoDB on Google Cloud takes the data burden off our teams and reduces time to value of our applications. We can stay nimble and can scale database capacity at the push of a button.
Our collaboration with the Google team has been fantastic. Our Startup Success Manager is an expert when it comes to Google Cloud solutions, and he also understands our business from his own experience as an entrepreneur and an investor. It’s great to have an internal point of contact who can help us navigate all of Google’s resources.
I’d also stress the extent to which Google Cloud values align with ours. For example, a key benefit for our customers is the ability to strip unconscious bias out of the hiring process. Google Cloud tools support this commitment to diversity, especially when we are building out our AI models.
On a team level, we also appreciate the support that Google Cloud has shown through its Google Support Fund for Start-ups in Ukraine. This has helped many Ukrainian businesses to continue to operate at a very challenging time, including startups with remote, distributed teams in Poland where most of us stem from.
If I had to sum up Google Cloud and our collaboration with Google for Startups in a phrase, I’d say that it adds enormous value to our business while removing much of the risk when scaling up a start-up. We’ve seen the addition of many new tools and features in the past two years and our Google mentors are always looking at the best way these can be integrated with Gyfted’s own roadmap. That means that we can continue to transform recruiting and hiring processes with the support of one of the world’s most advanced tech companies as a strategic growth partner.
If you want to learn more about how Google Cloud can help your startup, visit our page here to get more information about our program, and sign up for our communications to get a look at our community activities, digital events, special offers, and more.
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