Google Research: Themes from 2021 and Beyond

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Posted by Jeff Dean, Senior Fellow and SVP of Google Research, on behalf of the entire Google Research community
Over the last several decades, I’ve witnessed a lot of change in the fields of machine learning (ML) and computer science. Early approaches, which often fell short, eventually gave rise to modern approaches that have been very successful. Following that long-arc pattern of progress, I think we’ll see a number of exciting advances over the next several years, advances that will ultimately benefit the lives of billions of people with greater impact than ever before. In this post, I’ll highlight five areas where ML is poised to have such impact. For each, I’ll discuss related research (mostly from 2021) and the directions and progress we’ll likely see in the next few years.
· Trend 1: More Capable, General-Purpose ML Models
· Trend 2: Continued Efficiency Improvements for ML
· Trend 3: ML Is Becoming More Personally and Communally Beneficial
· Trend 4: Growing Benefits of ML in Science, Health and Sustainability
· Trend 5: Deeper and Broader Understanding of ML
Trend 1: More Capable, General-Purpose ML Models
Researchers are training larger, more capable machine learning models than ever before. For example, just in the last couple of years models in the language domain have grown from billions of parameters trained on tens of billions of tokens of data (e.g., the 11B parameter T5 model), to hundreds of billions or trillions of parameters trained on trillions of tokens of data (e.g., dense models such as OpenAI’s 175B parameter GPT-3 model and DeepMind’s 280B parameter Gopher model, and sparse models such as Google’s 600B parameter GShard model and 1.2T parameter GLaM model). These increases in dataset and model size have led to significant increases in accuracy for a wide variety of language tasks, as shown by across-the-board improvements on standard natural language processing (NLP) benchmark tasks (as predicted by work on neural scaling laws for language models and machine translation models).
Many of these advanced models are focused on the single but important modality of written language and have shown state-of-the-art results in language understanding benchmarks and open-ended conversational abilities, even across multiple tasks in a domain. They have also shown exciting capabilities to generalize to new language tasks with relatively little training data, in some cases, with few to no training examples for a new task. A couple of examples include improved long-form question answering, zero-label learning in NLP, and our LaMDA model, which demonstrates a sophisticated ability to carry on open-ended conversations that maintain significant context across multiple turns of dialog.


(Weddell Seal image cropped from Wikimedia CC licensed image.)
Transformer models are also having a major impact in image, video, and speech models, all of which also benefit significantly from scale, as predicted by work on scaling laws for visual transformer models. Transformers for image recognition and for video classification are achieving state-of-the-art results on many benchmarks, and we’ve also demonstrated that co-training models on both image data and video data can improve performance on video tasks compared with video data alone. We’ve developed sparse, axial attention mechanisms for image and video transformers that use computation more efficiently, found better ways of tokenizing images for visual transformer models, and improved our understanding of visual transformer methods by examining how they operate compared with convolutional neural networks. Combining transformer models with convolutional operations has shown significant benefits in visual as well as speech recognition tasks.
The outputs of generative models are also substantially improving. This is most apparent in generative models for images, which have made significant strides over the last few years. For example, recent models have demonstrated the ability to create realistic images given just a category (e.g., “irish setter” or “streetcar”, if you desire), can “fill in” a low-resolution image to create a natural-looking high-resolution counterpart (“computer, enhance!”), and can even create natural-looking aerial nature scenes of arbitrary length. As another example, images can be converted to a sequence of discrete tokens that can then be synthesized at high fidelity with an autoregressive generative model.

Because these are powerful capabilities that come with great responsibility, we carefully vet potential applications of these sorts of models against our AI Principles.
Beyond advanced single-modality models, we are also starting to see large-scale multi-modal models. These are some of the most advanced models to date because they can accept multiple different input modalities (e.g., language, images, speech, video) and, in some cases, produce different output modalities, for example, generating images from descriptive sentences or paragraphs, or describing the visual content of images in human languages. This is an exciting direction because like the real world, some things are easier to learn in data that is multimodal (e.g., reading about something and seeing a demonstration is more useful than just reading about it). As such, pairing images and text can help with multi-lingual retrieval tasks, and better understanding of how to pair text and image inputs can yield improved results for image captioning tasks. Similarly, jointly training on visual and textual data can also help improve accuracy and robustness on visual classification tasks, while co-training on image, video, and audio tasks improves generalization performance for all modalities. There are also tantalizing hints that natural language can be used as an input for image manipulation, telling robots how to interact with the world and controlling other software systems, portending potential changes to how user interfaces are developed. Modalities handled by these models will include speech, sounds, images, video, and languages, and may even extend to structured data, knowledge graphs, and time series data.

Often these models are trained using self-supervised learning approaches, where the model learns from observations of “raw” data that has not been curated or labeled, e.g., language models used in GPT-3 and GLaM, the self-supervised speech model BigSSL, the visual contrastive learning model SimCLR, and the multimodal contrastive model VATT. Self-supervised learning allows a large speech recognition model to match the previous Voice Search automatic speech recognition (ASR) benchmark accuracy while using only 3% of the annotated training data. These trends are exciting because they can substantially reduce the effort required to enable ML for a particular task, and because they make it easier (though by no means trivial) to train models on more representative data that better reflects different subpopulations, regions, languages, or other important dimensions of representation.
All of these trends are pointing in the direction of training highly capable general-purpose models that can handle multiple modalities of data and solve thousands or millions of tasks. By building in sparsity, so that the only parts of a model that are activated for a given task are those that have been optimized for it, these multimodal models can be made highly efficient. Over the next few years, we are pursuing this vision in a next-generation architecture and umbrella effort called Pathways. We expect to see substantial progress in this area, as we combine together many ideas that to date have been pursued relatively independently.

What Drives Your Organization to be Data-driven?

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Every organization has its own unique data culture and capabilities. Yet each is expected to use technology trends and solutions in the same way as everyone else. Your organization may be built on years of legacy applications, you may have developed a considerable amount of expertise and knowledge, yet you may be asked to adopt a new approach based on a technology trend. On the other hand, you may be on the other side of the spectrum, a digitally native organization built with engineering principles from scratch without legacy systems but expected to follow the same principles as process driven, established organizations. The question is, should we treat these organizations in the same way when it comes to data processing? In this series of blogs and papers this is what we are exploring: how to set up an organization from the first principles from data analyst, data engineering and data science point of view. In reality, there is no such organization that is solely driven by one of these but it is likely to be a combination of multiple types. What type of organization you become is then driven by how much you are influenced by each of these principles.
When you are considering what data processing technology encompasses, take a step back and make a strategic decision based on your key goals. This can be whether you optimize for performance, cost, reduction in operational overhead, increase in operational excellence, integration of new analytical and machine learning approaches. Or perhaps you’re looking to leverage existing employees’ skills while meeting all your data governance and regulatory requirements. We will be exploring these different themes and will focus on how they guide your decision-making process. You may be coming from technologies which are solving some of the past problems and some of the terminologies may be more familiar, however they don’t scale your capabilities. There is also the opportunity cost of prioritizing legacy and new issues that arise from a transformation effort, and as a result your new initiative can set you further behind on your core business while you play catch up to an ever changing technology landscape.
Data value chain
The key for any ingestion and transformation tool is to extract data from a source and start acting on it. The ultimate goal is to reduce the complexity and increase the timeliness of the data. Without data, it is impossible to create a data driven organization and act on the insights. As a result, data needs to be transformed, enriched, joined with other data sources, and aggregated to make better decisions. In other words, insights on good timely data mean good decisions.
While deciding on the data ingestion pipeline, one of the best approaches is to look into the volume of data, the velocity of the data, and type of data that is arriving. Other considerations include the number of different data sources you are managing, whether you need to scale to thousands of sources using generic pipelines, whether you want to create one generic pipeline but then apply data quality rules and governance. ETL tools are ideal for this use case as generic pipelines can be written and then parameterized.
On the other hand, consider the data source. Can the data be directly ingested without transforming and formatting the data? If the data does not need to be transformed and can be ingested directly into the data warehouse as a managed solution. This not only reduces the operational costs but also allows for more timely data delivery. If the data is coming in through an unstructured format such as XML or in a format such as EBCDIC and needs to be transformed and formatted, then a tool with ETL Capabilities can be used depending on the speed of the data arrival.
It is also important to understand the speed and time of arrival of the data. Think about your SLAs and time durations/windows that are relevant for your data ingestion plans. This would not only drive the ingestion profiles but would also dictate which framework to use. As discussed above, velocity requirements would drive the decision-making process.
Type of Organization
Different organizations can be successful by employing different strategies based on the talent that they have. Just like in sports, each team plays with a different strategy with the ultimate goal of winning.
Organizations often need to decide on what’s the best strategy to take in respect to data ingestion and processing – whether you need to hire an expensive group of data engineers, or exploit your data wizards and analysts to enrich and transform data that can be acted on, or whether it would be more realistic to train the current workforce to do more functional/high value work rather than to focus on building generally understood and available foundational pieces.
On the other hand, the transformation part of ETL pipelines as we know it, dictates where the load will be. All of these are made a reality in the cloud native world where data can be enriched, aggregated, and joined. Loading data into a powerful and modern data warehouse means that you can already join and enrich the data using ELT. Consequently, ETL isn’t really needed in its strict terms anymore if the data can be loaded directly into the data warehouse.
All of the above was not possible in the traditional, siloed, and static data warehouses and data ecosystems whereby systems would not talk to each other or there were capacity constraints in respect to both storing and processing the data in the expensive Data Warehouse. This is no longer the case in the BigQuery world as storage is now cheap and transformations are now much more capable without constraints of virtual appliances.
If your organization is already heavily invested into an ETL tool, one option is to use them to load BigQuery and transform the data initially within the ETL tool. Once the as-is and to-be are verified to be matching, then with the improved knowledge and expertise one can start moving workloads into BigQuery SQL, and effectively do ELT.
Furthermore, if your organization is coming from a more traditional data warehouse that extensively relies on stored procedures and scripting, then the question that one may ask is, do I continue leveraging these skills and expertise and use these capabilities that are also provided in BigQuery? ELT with BigQuery is more natural, similar to what’s already in Teradata BTEQ, Oracle PL/SQL but migrating from ETL to ELT requires changes. This change then enables exploiting streaming use cases, such as real-time use cases in retail. This is because there is no preceding step before data is loaded and made available.
Organizations can be broadly classified under 3 types as Data Analyst Driven, Data Engineering driven, and Blended organization. We will be covering a Data Science driven organization within the Blended category.
Data Analyst Driven
Analysts understand the business and are used to using SQL/spreadsheets. Allowing them to do advanced analytics through interfaces that they are accustomed to enables scaling. As a result, easy to use ETL tooling to bring data quickly into the target system becomes a key driver. Ingesting data directly from a source or staging area then also becomes critical as it allows analysts to exploit their key skills using ELT and increases timeliness of the data. This is commonplace with traditional EDWs and realized by extended capabilities of using Stored Procedures and Scripting. Data is enriched, transformed, and cleansed using SQL and ETL tools act as the orchestration tools.
The capabilities brought by cloud computing on separation of data and computation changes the face of the EDW as well. Rather than creating complex ingestion pipelines, the role of the ingestion becomes, bringing data close to the cloud, staging on a storage bucket or on a messaging system before being ingested into the cloud EDW. This then releases data analysts to focus on looking into data insights using tools and interfaces that they are accustomed to.
Data Engineering / Data Science Driven
Building complex data engineering pipelines is expensive but enables increased capabilities. This allows creating repeatable processes and scaling the number of sources. Once complemented with cloud it enables agile data processing methodologies. On the other hand, data science organizations allow carrying out experiments and producing applications that work for specific use cases but are not often productionised or generalized.
Real-time analytics enables immediate responses and there are specific use cases where low latency anomaly detection applications are required to run. In other words, business requirements would be such that it has to be acted upon as the data arrives on the fly. Processing this type of data or application requires transformation done outside of the target.
All the above usually requires custom applications or state-of-the-art tooling which is achieved by organizations that excel with their engineering capabilities. In reality, there are very few organizations that can be truly engineering organizations. Many fall into what we call here as the blended organization.
Blended org
The above classification can be used on tool selection for each project. For example, rather than choosing a single tool, choose the right tool for the right workload, because this would reduce operational cost, license cost and use the best of the tools available. Let the deciding factor be driven by business requirements: each business unit or team would know the applications they need to connect with to get valuable business insights. This coupled with the data maturity of the organization would be the key to making sure the right data processing tool would be the right fit.
In reality, you are likely to be somewhere on a spectrum. Digital native organizations are likely to be closer to being engineering driven, due to their culture and business that they are in. However, brick and mortar organizations would be closer to being analyst driven due to the significant number of legacy systems and processes they possess. These organizations are either considering or working toward digital transformation with an aspiration of having a data engineering / software engineering culture like Google.
The blended organization with strong skills around data engineering, would have built the platform and built frameworks, to increase reusable patterns would increase productivity and then reduce costs. Data engineers focus on running Spark on Kubernetes whereas infrastructure engineers focus on container work. This in turn provides unparalleled capabilities as application developers focus on the data pipelines and even the underlying technologies or platforms changes code stays the same. As a result, security issues, latency requirements, cost demands and portability are addressed at multiple layers.
Conclusion – What type of organization are you?
Often an organization’s infrastructure is not flexible enough to react to a fast changing technological landscape. Whether you are part of an organization which is engineering driven or analyst driven, organizations frequently look at technical requirements that inform which architecture to implement. But a key, and frequently overlooked, component needed to truly become a data-driven organization is the impact of the architecture on your data users. When you take into account the responsibilities, skill sets, and trust of your data users, you can create the right data platform to meet the needs of your IT department as well as your business.
To become a truly data-driven organization, the first step is to design and implement an analytics data platform that meets your technical and business needs. The reality is that each organization is different and has a different culture, different skills, and capabilities. Key is to leverage its strengths to stay competitive while adopting new technologies when it is needed and as it fits to your organization.
To learn more about the elements of how to build an analytics data platform depending on the organization you are, read our paper here.
Adapting Regulatory Frameworks to Manage AI/ML Risks in Financial Services

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Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) have led to increased adoption in the financial services sector. A prominent use for this technology is to assist in key compliance and risk functions, including the detection of fraud, money laundering, and other financial crimes and illicit finance, as well as trade manipulation — collectively referred to as “Risk AI/ML.” As the use of these models grows, so do questions about managing risks associated with the models.
In particular, regulators, financial institutions, and technology service providers have been looking into whether existing Model Risk Management (MRM) guidance — which has traditionally been the regulatory regime applicable to managing model risk in the financial services industry — continues to be relevant for AI/ML models. And, if so, how should the guidance be interpreted and applied to this new technology?
As the financial sector increasingly adopts artificial intelligence and machine learning techniques, it is critical for regulators, financial companies and technology providers to work together to assure that there are clear rules of the road,” says Jo Ann Barefoot, AIR CEO and co-founder. “Updated guidelines on the responsible use of these models can help prevent novel technologies from causing harm, and can also open up better ways to combat risk in areas like money laundering, illicit finance, and fraud.
Our new white paper, written in partnership with the Alliance for Innovative Regulation (AIR), seeks to address that question, with the aim of fostering thought and dialogue among agencies, the financial services industry, risk model vendors, and entities interested in the performance, outputs, and compliance of models used to identify, mitigate, and combat risks in financial services. This white paper does not address issues that may arise with other applications of AI/ML in the financial services industry, such as consumer credit underwriting or models using generative AI or Large Language Models, which are better addressed iteratively.
The paper argues that MRM guidance, given its broad, principles-based approach, continues to provide an appropriate framework for assessing financial institutions’ management of model risk, even for Risk AI/ML models. Working within an existing framework takes advantage of the knowledge and operational capabilities of institutions that already understand this framework, instead of having to create an entirely new approach, which generally takes longer to implement and make effective. Nonetheless, the paper recognizes that AI/ML models have unique traits and characteristics compared to conventional models, including their potential dynamism and pattern recognition capabilities. These distinctions must be in focus when considering how MRM guidance should be applied to Risk AI/ML models.
Taking into account those unique aspects of AI/ML models, the paper offers specific observations and recommendations regarding the application of MRM guidance to Risk AI/ML models, including:
- Risk assessment: In assessing risk, it is important to recognize that AI/ML models are not inherently more risky than conventional models. A risk-tiering assessment must consider the targeted business application or process for which a model is used, as well as the model’s complexity and materiality. To assist in these assessments, regulators could clarify that the use of AI/ML alone does not place a model into a high-risk tier and publish further guidance to help set expectations regarding the materiality/risk ratings of AI/ML models as applied to common use cases.
- Safety and soundness: Due to the dynamic nature of Risk AI/ML models, reliance on extensive and ongoing testing focused on outcomes throughout the development and implementation stages of such models should be primary in satisfying regulatory expectations of soundness. To that end, the development of technical metrics and related testing benchmarks should be encouraged. Model “explainability,” while useful for purposes of understanding the specific outputs of AI/ML models, may be less effective or insufficient for establishing whether the model as a whole is sound and fit for purpose.
- Model documentation: The touchstone for the sufficiency of documentation should be what is needed for the bank to use and validate the model, and understand its design, theory, and logic. Disclosure of proprietary details, such as model code, is unnecessary and unhelpful in verifying the sufficiency of a model and would deter model builders from sharing best-in-class technology with financial institutions.
- Industry standards and best practices: Regulators should support the development of global standards and their use across the financial services and regulatory landscape by explicitly recognizing such standards as presumptive evidence of compliance with the MRM guidance and sound AI/ML risk mitigation practices. In addition, regulators should foster industry collaboration and training based on such standards.
Governance controls: Regulators should use guidance to advance the use of governance controls, including incremental rollouts and circuit breakers, as essential tools in mitigating risks associated with Risk AI/ML models.
In an era where AI technology has the potential to revolutionize financial services, we acknowledge the foresight of our regulators in setting a solid foundation and blueprint for navigating the labyrinth of potential risks through the MRM guidance,” says Philip Moyer, Global VP, AI and Business Solutions at Google Cloud. “We believe there is room for greater coherence and precision, enhanced risk-mitigation approaches, and refined best practices surrounding AI and ML risk models. Whether it’s in capacity building or information sharing, our call to action is for greater collaboration between regulators and financial institutions. We’re confident that our collective efforts today will help shape a more robust and resilient future for financial services.
We invite a discussion of additional considerations, including the importance of examiner and industry training and collaboration, as well as openness by regulators to continue to refine the MRM guidance as AI/ML technologies develop and standards emerge.
Implementing our recommendations would advance several goals. It would help regulators, financial institutions, and technology providers work together to better serve their shared purpose of protecting the safety and soundness of the financial system. At the same time, implementing the recommendations and continuing work in this space would promote the adoption of cutting-edge technologies in the industry, including those that combat such scourges as money laundering, illicit finance, and fraud.
You can read the full white paper here.
The Future of Language Processing: Google Cloud’s Enhanced NLP Models

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Natural language understanding (NLU) is getting increasingly better at solving complex problems and these language breakthroughs are creating big waves in Artificial Intelligence. For example, new language models are enabling Everyday Robots to create more helpful robots that can break down user instructions and have even enabled people to generate imaginative visuals from complex text prompts.
These leaps in NLU are powered by neural networks trained to understand human language. This technology has greatly advanced since the introduction of Google’s Transformer architecture in 2017 with the introduction of large models trained on massive amounts of data like GPT-3 and, even more recently, with GLaM, LaMDA, and PaLM. This latest generation of models are called Large Language Models (LLMs) because of their sheer size and the vast volumes of data on which they are trained, and they can be applied to a range of tasks to create more powerful digital assistants, generate better search results and product recommendations, enforce smarter platform curation and safety features, and much more.
For these reasons, we’re pleased to announce we’ve updated the Google Cloud Natural Language (NL) API with a new LLM-based model for Content Classification.
With an expansive pre-trained classification taxonomy, the newest version of Content Classification from the Natural Language API leverages the latest Google research to improve customer use cases spanning actionable insights on user trends, to ad targeting, to content-based filtering. In this article, we’ll explore the NL API’s new capabilities, which are the first of many efforts we’ll be making to bring the power of LLMs to Google Cloud.
How LLMs help machines understand human language
As Google Cloud VP and General Manager of AI and Industry Solutions, Andrew Moore has argued, if computer systems become more conversant with natural human languages, they become a foundation for more sophisticated use cases, able to not only understand user intent but also create complex bespoke solutions. Google has been a leading research force in this space, with LLM projects like LaMDA, PaLM and T5 contributing to the Cloud NL API’s improved v2 classification model.
Parsing language is a difficult AI task for machines due in part to the contextual and individual interpretation of words or phrases. The word “server,” for example, could refer to a computer, a restaurant employee, or a tennis player. To understand the word, a model needs to be trained around not only a basic definition but also the context and positioning of the word within a sentence or conversation and its evolving connotations. Because they process voluminous training data via Transformers, LLMs are well-suited to this type of work.
Thanks to the integration of Google’s latest language modeling technology, and an updated and expanded training data set, the next generation of the Content Classification API not only has over 1,000 labels (up from around 600 previously), but now also supports 11 languages (with Chinese, French, German, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese, Russia, Spanish, and Dutch joining previously-available English)—and does so with improved accuracy.
AI raises questions about the best way to build fairness, interpretability, privacy, and security into these new systems in order to benefit people and society. At Google, we prioritize the responsible development of AI and take steps to offer products where a responsible approach is built in by design. For Content Classification, we limited use of sensitive labels and conducted performance evaluations. See our Responsible AI page for more information about our commitments to responsible innovation.
Get Started
Today’s announcement is just the first step in bringing LLM capabilities to Google Cloud AI products, and we’re excited to see how our more powerful Natural Language API helps developers, analysts and data scientists generate insights and offer superior experiences. Our early adopters are implementing the API to improve user recommendations, display ad targeting, and insights about new trends.
If you’re ready to get started with this major leap in Google Cloud language services, visit our NL API documentation, and to learn more about Google Cloud’s AI services, visit our AI and machine learning products page.
Apache and Dataflow Help with Real-time Indices Processing for Financial Institutions
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Financial institutions across the globe rely on real-time indices to inform real-time portfolio valuations, to provide benchmarks for other investments, and as a basis for passive investment instruments including exchange-traded products (ETPs). This reliance is growing—the index industry dramatically expanded in 2020, reaching revenues of $4.08 billion.
Today, indices are calculated and distributed by index providers with proximity and access to underlying asset data, and with differentiating real-time data processing capabilities. These providers offer subscriptions to real-time feeds of index prices and publish the constituents, calculation methodology, and update frequency for each index.
But as new assets, markets, and data sources have proliferated, financial institutions have developed new requirements. Financial institutions will need to quickly create bespoke and frequently updating indices that represent a specific actual or theoretical portfolio, with its unique constituents and weightings.
In other words, existing index providers and other financial institutions alike will need mechanisms for rapid creation of real-time indices. This blog post’s focus—an index publication pipeline collaboratively developed by CME Group and Google Cloud—is an example of such a mechanism.
The pipeline closely approximates a particular CME Group index benchmark, but with far greater frequency (in near real time vs. daily) than its official counterpart. It does so by leveraging open-source models such as Apache Beam and cloud-based technologies such as Dataflow, which automatically scales pipelines based on inbound data volume.

Machine learning’s production problem
In the past decade, advances in AI toolchains have enabled faster ML model training—and yet a majority of ML models are still not making it into production. As organizations endeavor to develop their ML capabilities, they soon realize that a real-world ML system is comprised of a small amount of ML code embedded in a network of complex and large ancillary components. Each component brings its own development and operational challenges, which are met by bringing a DevOps methodology to the ML system, commonly referred to as MLOps (Machine Learning Operations). To apply ML to business problems, a firm must develop continuous delivery and automation pipelines for ML.
This index publication collaboration is instructive because it demonstrates MLOps best practices for just such a pipeline. One Apache Beam pipeline, suited for operating on both batch and streaming data, extracts insights and packages them for downstream consumers. These consumers may include ML pipelines that, thanks to Apache Beam, require only one code path for inference across batch and real-time data sources. The pipeline is run inside Google Cloud’s Dataflow execution engine, greatly simplifying management of underlying compute resources.
But the collaboration’s value is not constrained to the ML and data science realm. The project shows that consumers of the Apache Beam pipeline’s insights may also include traditional business intelligence dashboards and reporting tools. It also demonstrates the simplicity and economy of cloud-based time series data such as CME Smart Stream, which is metered by the hour, quickly and automatically provisioned, and consumable at a per-product-code (not per-feed) level.
A focus on real-time processing for financial services
To illustrate the above points, the collaboration applies data engineering and MLOps best practices to a financial services problem. We chose the financial services domain because many financial institutions do not yet have real-time market data processing or MLOps capabilities today, owing to a significant gap on either side of their ML/AI objectives.
Upstream from ML/AI models, financial institutions often experience a data engineering gap. For many financial institutions, batch processes have sufficiently addressed business requirements. As a result, the temporal nature of the time series data underlying these processes is deemphasized. For example, the original purpose of most trade booking systems was to capture a trade and ensure that it found its way to the middle and back office for settlement. It was not built with ML/AI in mind, and its underlying data therefore has not been packaged for consumption by ML/AI processes.
And downstream from ML/AI models, financial institutions often encounter the aforementioned “ML production problem.”
As ML/AI becomes ever more strategic, these two gaps have left many financial institutions in a conundrum—unable to train ML models for lack of properly packaged time series data, and unmotivated to package time series data for lack of ML models. By recreating a key energy market index using open-source libraries and cloud-based tools, this collaboration demonstrates that for the financial services domain a solution to this conundrum is more accessible today than ever.
Creating a new index
We modeled our new index after one of CME Group’s many index benchmarks. The particular index expresses the value of a basket of three New York Mercantile Exchange—listed energy futures as a single price. Today, CME Group publishes the index at the end of the day by calculating the settlement price of each underlying futures contract, and then weighing and summing these values.
While CME Group does not currently publish this index in real time, this collaboration aims to create a near real-time solution leveraging Google Cloud capabilities and CME Group market data delivered via CME Smart Stream. However, in order to publish the value so frequently—every five seconds, with 40-second publish latency—this collaboration’s pipeline has to solve a number of challenges in near-real time.
First, the pipeline must process sparse data from three separate trades feeds in memory to create open-high-low-close (OHLC) bars. More specifically, for five-second windows for each of the three front-month (and sometimes second-month) energy contracts, a bar must be produced. This is solved by using the Apache Beam library to implement functions which, when executed on Dataflow, automatically scale out as input load increases. The bars must be time-aligned across the underlying feeds, which is greatly simplified by Beam’s watermark feature. And for intervals in which no tick data is observed, the Beam library is used to pull forward the last value received, yielding perfect gap-free bars for downstream processors.
Second, the pipeline must calculate volume-weighted average price (VWAP) in near real-time for each front-month contract. The VWAP calculations are also written using the Beam API and executed on Dataflow. Each of these functions requires visibility of each element in the time window, so the functions cannot be arbitrarily scaled out. Nonetheless, this is tractable because their input—OHLC bars—is manageably small.
Third, the pipeline must replicate CME Group’s specific settlement price methodology for each contract. The rules specify whether to use VWAP or another source as price, depending on certain conditions. They also specify how to weigh combinations of monthly contracts during a roll period. The pipeline again encapsulates these requirements as an Apache Beam class, and joins the separate price streams at the correct time boundary.
The end result is a new stream publishing bespoke index data to a Google Cloud Pub/Sub topic thousands of times daily, enabling AI models as well as traditional industry index usage, dashboards, and other tools to assist real-time decision making. The stream’s pipeline uses open source libraries that solve common time series problems out-of-the box, and cloud-based services to reduce the user’s operational and scaling burden.

The importance of cloud-based data
The promise of cloud-based pipeline execution services cannot be realized using legacy data access patterns, which often require market data users to colocate and configure servers and network gear. Such patterns inject expense and scaling complexity into the pipeline’s overall operation, diverting resources from the adoption of MLOps best practices. Instead, a newer, cloud-based access pattern—in which resources subscribe to data streams inexpensively, rapidly and programatically—is necessary.
In 2018, CME Group identified the customer need for accessible futures and options market data. CME Group collaborated with Google Cloud to launch CME Smart Stream, which distributes CME Group’s real-time market data across Google Cloud’s global infrastructure with sub-second latency. Any customer with a CME Group data usage license and a Google Cloud project can consume this data for an hourly usage fee, without purchasing and configuring servers and network gear.
CME Smart Stream met this index pipeline’s requirements for cost-effective, cloud-based streaming data, but this is just one use case. Since the launch of a CME Smart Stream offering on Google Cloud, globally dispersed firms have adopted the solution. For example, Coin Metrics has been using the offering to better inform its customers in the crypto markets. According to CME Group, Smart Stream has become popular with new customers as the fastest, simplest way to access CME Group’s market data from anywhere in the world.
Adapt the design pattern to your needs
By combining cloud-based data, open-source libraries, and cloud-based pipeline execution services, we created a real-time index using the same constituents as its end-of-day counterpart. Additionally, financial institutions will find this approach addresses many other challenges—real-time valuation of a large set of portfolios; benchmark creation for new ETPs; or external publication of new indices.
Give it a try
This approach is available to help you meet your organization’s needs. Please review our user guide, whose Tutorials section provides a step-by-step guide to constructing a simple Apache Beam pipeline to generate metrics on streaming data in real-time, and connecting a new data source to the pipeline. We’ll be discussing this topic in CME Group’s webinar End-to-End Market Data Solutions in the Cloud at 10:30 am ET on June 16th.

ESG Report: Economic Advantages of Google BigQuery OnDemand Serverless Analytics
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Traditional big data solutions require a significant upfront investment, ongoing maintenance of hardware and software, and manual provisioning to match compute and storage resources with demand. Google’s serverless analytics warehouse does away with all that extra work, helping businesses focus on what matters most: getting value from their data.
Enterprise Strategy Group (ESG), which examined the economic value propositions of Google BigQuery and alternative big data solutions, reports that BigQuery enables organizations to:
- Save up to 88 percent on data warehousing over a three-year period
- Achieve a faster time to value by getting up and running quickly
- Empower more employees to become citizen data scientists
Eliminate maintenance tasks so teams can spend more time gaining insights
Download the complete report to learn more.
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