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Google Introduces ML-based Predictive Autoscaling to Forecast Capacity and Match Scaling Demands

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Google Cloud's predictive autoscaling makes the infrastructure scaling process more proactive! End unpredictability by forecasting scaling capacity in advance, and match the demands, creating VMs with enough time for applications to initialize.

At Google Cloud, we believe you get most benefits from the cloud when you scale infrastructure based on changing demand. Compute Engine allows you to configure autoscaling to save costs during periods of low demand, and add capacity to support peak loads. 

When you use a managed instance group (MIG), you can have an autoscaler automatically create or delete virtual machine (VM) instances based on increases or decreases in load. However, if your application takes several minutes to initialize, creating VMs in response to growing load might not increase your application’s capacity quickly enough. For example, if there’s a large increase in load (like when users first wake up in the morning), some users might experience delays while your application is initializing on new instances.

A good way to solve this problem would be to create VMs ahead of demand so that your application has enough time to initialize beforehand. This requires knowing upcoming demand. If only we could predict the future… Well, now we can!

Introducing predictive autoscaling

Predictive autoscaling uses Google Cloud’s machine learning capabilities to forecast capacity needs. It creates VMs ahead of growing demand allowing enough time for your application to initialize.

Figure 1.jpg
Figure 1. Autoscaling creates VMs as demand grows leaving no buffer for application to initialize. Predictive autoscaling creates VMs ahead of demand allowing enough time for your application to initialize and start serving new load.

How does it work?

Predictive autoscaling uses your instance group’s CPU history to forecast future load and calculate how many VMs are needed to meet your target CPU utilization. Our machine learning adjusts the forecast based on recurring load patterns for each MIG. 

You can specify how far in advance you want autoscaler to create new VMs by configuring the application initialization period. For example, if your app takes 5 minutes to initialize, autoscaler will create new instances 5 minutes ahead of the anticipated load increase. This allows you to keep your CPU utilization within the target and keep your application responsive even when there’s high growth in demand. 

Many of our customers have different capacity needs during different times of the day or different days of the week. Our forecasting model understands weekly and daily patterns to cover for these differences. For example, if your app usually needs less capacity on the weekend our forecast will capture that. Or, if you have higher capacity needs during working hours, we also have you covered.

Why should you try it?

Predictive autoscaling continuously adapts forecasted capacity to best match upcoming demand. Autoscaler checks the forecast several times per minute and creates or deletes VMs to match its prediction. The forecast itself is updated every few minutes to match recent load trends so if your growth rate is higher or lower than usual we will adjust the forecast accordingly. This gives you capacity needed to cover peak load while saving on cost when demand goes down. 

You can start using predictive autoscaling without worry as it’s fully compatible with the current autoscaler. Autoscaler will calculate enough VMs to cover both forecasted as well as real-time CPU load—whichever is higher. This works with other autoscaling features as well: you can scale based on schedule, your Load Balancer request target or Cloud Monitoring metrics. Autoscaler provides enough capacity to all of your configurations by taking the highest number of VMs needed to meet all your targets.

Getting started

You can enable predictive autoscaling in the Google Cloud Console. Select an autoscaled MIG from the instance groups page and click Edit group. Change predictive autoscaling configuration from Off to Optimize for availability.

compute google console.jpg

To better understand whether predictive autoscaling is good for your application, click the link See if predictive autoscaling can optimize your availability. This will show you a comparison of the last seven days with your current autoscaling configuration vs. with predictive autoscaling enabled.

instance group autoscaling.jpg

In the above chart, 

  • Average VM minutes overloaded per day shows how often your VMs exceed your CPU utilization target. This happens when demand is higher than available capacity. Predictive autoscaling can reduce this by starting VMs ahead of anticipated load. 
  • Average VMs per day is a proxy for cost. This shows how much additional VM capacity you need to keep your CPU utilization within the target you have set. You can optimize your cost by adjusting Minimum instances andCPU utilization as explained below. 

Optimizing your configuration

Make sure your Cool down period reflects how long it takes for your application to initialize from VM boot time until it’s ready to serve the load. Predictive autoscaling will use this value to start VMs ahead of forecasted load. If you set it to 10 minutes (600 seconds) your VMs will start 10 minutes before the load is expected to increase.

Review your autoscaling CPU utilization target and Minimum number of instances. With predictive autoscaling you no longer need a buffer to compensate for the time it takes for a VM to start. If your application works best at 70% CPU utilization you don’t need to set target to a much lower value as predictive autoscaling will start VMs ahead of usual load. A higher CPU utilization and lower Minimum number of instances allows you to reduce the cost as you don’t need to pay for additional capacity to prepare for growing demand.

Try predictive autoscaling today

Predictive autoscaling is generally available across all Google Cloud regions. For more information on how to configure, simulate and monitor predictive autoscaling, consult the documentation.

Case Study

How Pantheon Improved Performance and Reliability by Moving to Google Cloud

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Pantheon moved to Google Cloud Platform, improving performance and reliability while supporting a 99.95% uptime SLA and reducing cloud infrastructure costs by 40%.

Google Cloud Results

  • Improves performance and reliability, enabling Pantheon to serve larger customers
  • Supports 99.95% uptime across 200,000+ websites
  • Reduces cloud infrastructure costs by 40%
  • Enables future analytics offerings based on machine learning and big data analytics

Nearly every business needs a web presence—but the vast majority of companies don’t want to be involved in the technical aspects of coding, deployment, hosting, security, and scaling websites. To stay focused on the business value and creative aspects of their websites and avoid managing infrastructure, thousands of companies turn to Pantheon, a website operations and hosting platform that powers over 200,000 websites.

Pantheon promises its customers speed, reliability, and scalability plus world-class collaboration and workflow tools. For five years, the company was able to deliver high service levels in all three areas running its platform on bare-metal virtual cloud servers. However, as its business grew, network links began to saturate under heavy load, risking instability. As Pantheon’s business evolved to focus on servicing some of the largest websites in the world, the company wanted to partner with a more innovative cloud services provider.

“We wanted a partner that could give us what we offer to our own customers: the flexibility to scale smoothly and consume services without building them from scratch,” says David Strauss, CTO, Pantheon. “It was time to move beyond custom containers on managed VMs and extend our cloud strategy to include next-generation technologies for container management and analytics.”

Pantheon evaluated several leading cloud providers and determined that Google Cloud Platform would be the best fit for its business and customers. Engineering had the final say, running a battery of functionality and performance tests at the storage, database, and web server layers.

“In every test our engineers did, Google Cloud Platform came in as better, faster, and more cost effective than the competition,” says Niall Hayes, COO, Pantheon. “We compared MariaDB to Google Cloud SQL and Cassandra to Google Bigtable, and container density improved from 250 to 400 containers per server.”

Migrating 200,000+ sites in 2 weeks

Pantheon wanted to make the transition transparent to its customers, so a fast and smooth migration to Google Cloud Platform was essential. With help from Google, Pantheon completed the migration quickly and moved 500TB of databases, code, and files with zero customer impact.

“We migrated over 200,000 websites to Google Cloud Platform in 2 weeks, including 50,000 that are heavily trafficked and actively developed, and nobody noticed,” says Josh Koenig, Co-founder and Head of Products at Pantheon. “The speed was incredible. There was no downtime, and we filed no additional support tickets with Google during the entire process.”

The platform for platforms

For its content management system runtime environment, Pantheon runs its own homegrown container management technology on Google Compute Engine. To automate scaling for other core services such as its routing layer and distributed file system, it uses Google Kubernetes Engine for cluster management and orchestration.

“Google is the clear leader in Kubernetes and container management, which aligns very well with our open source values and our vision for the future,” says Niall. “With Google Kubernetes Engine we get better resource efficiency, and automated operations and autoscaling take a lot of administration off our plate.”

In addition to smooth scaling, Pantheon and its customers benefit from improved performance and reliability thanks to the high-quality private network offered by Google.

Further, the Google partnership with Fastly enables direct connectivity to Google Cloud Platform to improve performance for edge caching. As a result of these improvements, Pantheon raised its availability service level agreement (SLA) from 99.9% to 99.95% and can now take on even larger customers.

“Google’s network topology, both locally and globally, performs better and more reliably than competing solutions, making Google Cloud Platform the best choice for us and for our customers,” says David. “Google beats any other cloud provider as the best platform-for-platforms.”

Adds Josh: “Google has unbelievable technology around persistence and replication between zones and regions, and that is not something we could find anywhere else. This allows us to offer advanced disaster recovery and failover services to our customers.”

Strengthening customer relationships

Pantheon uses Google BigQuery, a fully managed, cloud-based data warehouse, to integrate with Fastly and analyze website traffic on behalf of its customers. Previously, Pantheon was unable to ingest edge data quickly enough from Fastly, limiting its ability to identify issues and provide the best customer service. Today, Fastly streams logs in real time into Google BigQuery for analysis, giving Pantheon a wealth of insights.

“We use Google BigQuery to identify customers that have outgrown their infrastructure or need to right-size for business growth,” says David. “We can have proactive conversations and add a lot of value to the relationships. Soon, we plan to make Google BigQuery available to our customers so they can better understand their own traffic.”

Adds Niall: “Google Cloud Platform is more data-oriented than other cloud providers, making it a better match for our needs and our customers’ strategic initiatives.”

Integrated, granular security

Pantheon appreciates that Google Cloud services are built for public cloud, with granular security as a core design and development requirement. Employees simply use their G Suite credentials to gain access to Google Cloud Platform infrastructure and services.

“We’ve been a G Suite shop for years because of the paperless collaboration benefits,” says Josh. “G Suite connects our distributed company, and it was very natural to use those same logins for Google Cloud Platform.”

Staying competitive and productive

Moving to Google Cloud Platform opens up new possibilities for services Pantheon can offer to customers in the future, including machine learning and big data analytics, to give them a more complete view of how digital experiences are driving their businesses. Internally, engineers can move faster, do more effective capacity planning, and provide better service as Pantheon moves its products upmarket.

Pantheon expected to save 20% on cloud infrastructure costs by moving to Google Cloud Platform, but was able to double that savings with resource optimization and managed services.

“Since moving to Google Cloud Platform, our platform is more secure, reliable, and scalable than ever. We reduced our cloud infrastructure costs by 40%, and our customers’ sites run 45% faster than industry benchmarks,” says Niall. “Our engineers are Google fans for a reason—they’re happier, more efficient, and more productive on Google Cloud Platform.”

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The Journey ahead for Google Cloud and SAP

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Many customers choose Google Cloud for SAP implementation owing to its superior data and analytics services. To help customers with freedom, flexibility and ROI in cloud investments, the duo announced expanded partnership. Learn now!

The partnership between Google Cloud and SAP is entering a new chapter. Over the years, our close partnership with SAP and our mutual dedication to customers has inspired us to do some of our most unique and innovative work—such as building Fast Restart and Memory Poisoning Recovery capabilities for S/4HANA workloads, offering real-time access to our advanced machine learning (ML) capabilities, and developing integrations with the industry’s best cloud security and network infrastructure.

With an expanded, strategic partnership, we are capitalizing on one of the cloud’s most valuable benefits: enabling customer choice without driving up cost or complexity. Customers have shared that they appreciate what Google Cloud has done over the years to support their ability to choose—from our support for multi-cloud environments to our track record with open-source technologies like Kubernetes, to name a couple of examples. 

“We chose Google Cloud to support our SAP implementation. Our decision had a lot to do with the relationship between Google Cloud and SAP and also for the applications and services that are offered by Google Cloud, like BigQuery, which are helping to enable data and analytics within our organization.”— Sam Moses, Vice President of Corporate Systems, The Home Depot

Now, we’re placing this same emphasis on customer choice, flexibility, and freedom to help SAP customers get greater ROI from their cloud investments in three ways:

  • Execute seamless business transformations that deliver all of the benefits of modern, cloud-native applications and services—quickly, economically, and without disrupting day-to-day operations
  • Migrate critical business systems to the cloud, in order to lock in OpEx savings and refocus their IT teams on strategic business technology initiatives
  • Augment existing business systems with cloud capabilities in AI, ML, and analytics

The cornerstone of our expanded partnership is the RISE with SAP program—a comprehensive set of tools, technology, and expert support for a fast, predictable, cost-effective path to business transformation with SAP in the cloud. RISE is also designed to meet every SAP customer on their own terms, whether they’re undertaking an enterprise-wide cloud migration or pursuing an incremental or hybrid-cloud approach. 

To support customers taking advantage of RISE with SAP, Google Cloud will work even more closely with SAP to accelerate customers’ cloud migrations and business process modernization across several key areas. This includes ensuring global availability of multiple SAP services and products—such as SAP Business Technology Platform and SAP HANA Cloud—on Google Cloud’s reliable, scalable infrastructure and high-speed network. Google Cloud is also committed to bringing SAP’s solution for RPA in manufacturing to the Google Cloud Marketplace to support business process modernization. 

Additionally, integrating our AI, ML, and analytics capabilities with key SAP solutions will help companies augment their business systems with sophisticated capabilities and technologies so they can draw more value out of the data stored with them.

“We can deliver our 160 key business insights two or three orders of magnitude faster with BigQuery. When you think about our marketing campaigns and month-end finance processes, we’re talking about jobs that used to take five to eight hours to complete that are now running in seconds.”— Dan Semmens, Head of Data and AI, ATB Financial

Join us on the journey ahead

There’s so much more to come from SAP and Google Cloud. Learn more about our commitment to enabling digital transformation and hear more from customers about their SAP on Google Cloud deployments.

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Case Study

Skincare Firm Scales 4X in Minutes with SAP on Google Cloud

As the number one skincare brand in the United States, Rodan + Fields must support its team of over 300,000 of independent contractors as well as work to ensure a really personalized experience for customers. To keep pace with the company’s growth, Rodan + Fields realized it needed a more modern, scalable platform for its SAP environment.

After implementing both SAP ERP and SAP Hybris on Google Cloud, Rodan + Fields can focus on its business instead of infrastructure. It can scale four times its size in less than five minutes. Also, BigQuery is now used for data analysis to support critical business decisions.

With SAP on Google Cloud consultants can have 100% confidence that Rodan + Fields systems will provide them the insight, data and tools to succeed.

Research Reports

Trading and Investment Companies will Increase Consumption of Cloud Services: Study Confirms

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Google Cloud commissioned survey by Coalition Greenwich on capital markets found 5 noteworthy insights on drivers for cloud adoption - common use cases and type of tech used. Read further for an overview of cloud adoption trends across market data.

While some traditional financial services companies have more slowly transitioned to the cloud, capital markets firms have embraced cloud computing across their entire value chains — front-, middle-, and back-office. We wanted to understand the dynamics behind this rapid adoption, the most common use cases, and the types of technology most in use, particularly as it relates to market data. Google Cloud commissioned Coalition Greenwich to survey 102 institutional capital markets professionals — at exchanges, trading systems, data aggregators, data producers, asset managers, hedge funds, and investment banks — in the United States, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. 

Our research found that while there are many drivers, demand for easier accessibility is fueling widespread adoption of cloud-based market data services, and associated trading infrastructures, across the buy side and sell side. In fact, 68% of sell-side and buy-side users find it critical for market data providers to offer public cloud-based data services. At the same time, exchanges, market data providers, aggregators, and trading systems are embracing the cloud as a delivery model by offering access to data directly via their own cloud services, APIs or partners.

Here were five noteworthy takeaways from the study: 

1. Cloud services are becoming ubiquitous for data deliveryToday, the cloud is pervasive, with 93% of exchanges, trading systems and data providers offering cloud-based data and services, according to surveyed executives. Moreover, 100% of those surveyed intend to offer new cloud-based services, such as derived data, in the next 12 months.

Market Data Trends 1.jpg

2. Commercial and investment banks are offering additional connectivity, real-time data feeds, and trading applications delivered via the cloud,demonstrating that it’s not only exchanges, trading systems, and data providers that are moving rapidly to the cloud. Internal use cases abound as well, with 67% of those surveyed consuming cloud-deployed market data, primarily for data analytics. 88% of surveyed sell-side firms intend to consume cloud-based market data services, with digital transformation, data science and quant research as the top use cases.

market data trends 6

3. Buy side firms will consume even more cloud-deployed data. Today, 90% of surveyed buy-side firms are consuming cloud-deployed market data, mostly for portfolio management. 70% of buy-side firms intend to consume more public cloud-based market data services in the next 12 months, adding services such as compliance and regulatory reporting.

Market Data Trends 3.jpg

4. AI/ML, powered by cloud, is moving out of the pilot phase and into mainstream useToday, 50% of exchanges, trading systems, and data providers are offering data products or services powered by AI/ML, and of those, 42% intend to offer AI-powered trade execution and trading analytics services in the next 12 months. Within commercial and investment banks, 55% said they are currently using AI/ML in the cloud, and while that was true for only 14% of overall buy-side respondents, 44% of large buy-side respondents are using it.

Market Data Trends 4.jpg

5. Exchanges, trading systems, and data providers are prioritizing public cloud for internal insights71% of these firms are using the public cloud, mostly for data transmission, processing, analysis, and long-term data storage. Over the next 12 months, 33% of new public cloud workloads will focus on data mining, data insights and advanced analytics, while 28% of new AI/ML tooling and infrastructure investments will focus on faster analytics and risk reviews, and 27% on data quality maintenance.

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“We see new, dramatic shifts on the adoption of cloud across market data,” said David Easthope, Senior Analyst for Coalition Greenwich. “And we expect further proliferation of cloud-based services and greater consumption across the trading and investing lifecycle.”

Conclusions and future predictions

Based on the survey results, Coalition Greenwich predicts five following trends over the next 12 months:

  1. Exchanges and trading systems will continue to launch a wide array of new cloud-based and possibly cloud exclusive data services across derived data, end of day data, reference data and pricing data.
  2. Data providers will launch new data products such as pre-trade analytics powered by AI/ML in the cloud.
  3. Commercial and investment banks will offer additional connectivity, real-time data feeds, and trading applications delivered via the cloud.
  4. Buy-side firms will consume even more cloud-deployed data, including real-time market data, portfolio management data, and risk analytics.
  5. Exchanges, trading systems and data providers will explore proof-of-concepts around core systems on the cloud. Improvements to AI/ML tooling or infrastructure will ramp up as firms seek more rapid responses to risk initiatives.

To learn more about these findings, download our two full reports, The Future of market data: Distribution and consumption through cloud and AI and Exchanges and data providers: Prioritizing the cloud and AI for internal insights or our short infographic.


Research methodology

The survey was conducted online by Coalition Greenwich on behalf of Google Cloud from March 2021 to April 2021 among 102 executives in North America (n=82), EMEA (n=17) and other (n=3) who are employed full-time and who are participants or influencers in decisions around cloud and/or senior management with a role at a company which is an institutional asset manager, hedge fund, alternative investment manager, exchange and/or trading system, information provider, information aggregator, or other asset manager/asset owner. The survey included wide perspectives from a range of firm size and asset class focus, including equity, fixed income, FX, commodities, multi-asset, and other asset classes.


Foot Notes

1.  We defined market data as direct feeds, consolidated feeds, terminal and desktop products, security and reference data, pricing data, historical data, alternative data, and index data.

Case Study

Groupe Dauphinoise Grows it Customer Base with G Suite and Google Cloud Platform

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Groupe Dauphinoise is a agricultural cooperative whose 1,500 employees spend their days out of the office. The company transitioned to G Suite to improve the flexibility and collaboration of its staff--and then quickly realized the power of Google Cloud.

As a leading French agricultural cooperative, Groupe Dauphinoise places collaboration at the heart of its philosophy. Working with farmers in the Rhone-Alpes region, Groupe Dauphinoise takes on a diverse range of activities from agricultural production to research and development to running retail outlets.

As its operations expanded and strained its existing infrastructure, Groupe Dauphinoise saw the opportunity to upgrade its technology solutions and adopted G Suite, Chrome devices and ultimately Google Cloud Platform (GCP).

“We transitioned to G Suite to improve our staff’s collaboration. We quickly realized that as the company grew, we needed a new infrastructure. Based on our satisfaction with G Suite, we chose GCP. With Google, ‘any device, anytime, anywhere’ is not just a dream,” says Sylvain Claudel, Head of IT at Groupe Dauphinoise.

“We transitioned to G Suite to improve our staff’s collaboration. We quickly realized that as the company grew, we needed a new infrastructure. Based on our satisfaction with G Suite, we chose GCP. With Google, ‘any device, anytime, anywhere’ is not just a dream.”

Sylvain Claudel, Head of IT, Groupe Dauphinoise

Flexible workforce, stable infrastructure

Many of Groupe Dauphinoise’s 1,500 employees spend their days out of the office. Five years ago, with the help of Google partner GoWizYou, the company transitioned to G Suite to improve the flexibility and collaboration of its staff.

As Groupe Dauphinoise began to expand and collect more data, the company reached the limits of its on-premise infrastructure. Adding new storage was not a simple matter. Acquiring, configuring and synchronising new servers costs Groupe Dauphinoise time as well as money. In addition, with all its servers stored in a single room, security was a concern. Groupe Dauphinoise needed a new infrastructure.

Google Cloud Platform was the only solution in mind after Groupe Dauphinoise’s experience with G Suite and Chromebooks. Disruption was kept to a minimum thanks to Google’s licensing agreements with Microsoft products, allowing the company to migrate without affecting its operations.

After migrating its infrastructure to Compute Engine, Groupe Dauphinoise can let Google look after the security and maintenance. Cloud IAM makes it easy for Groupe Dauphinoise to hand out permissions to sensitive resources across a number of sites with maximum security and minimum fuss. The company placed its archives in Cloud Storage, while Cloud SQL allows it to continue to make use of its MySQL databases without disrupting the day to day business. Meanwhile, BigQuery provides Groupe Dauphinoise with the raw power to analyse large datasets quickly.

“Our company is growing and we have more and more data to collect and analyze like sales data, weather patterns or production numbers. With GCP, we have more than a single on-premise data store, so our disaster recovery plan is much more flexible. Compute Engine allows us to add more storage quickly and easily, without having to spend days synchronizing data and installing new servers. We have improved security and maintained the stability of our infrastructure while keeping costs down,” says Sylvain.

Safeguarding the present, looking to the future

With Google Cloud Platform, Groupe Dauphinoise has expanded and secured its infrastructure without sinking costs into on-premise servers or DevOps staff. Its investment in Chrome devices and adoption of G Suite mean that its mobile workforce can fully reap the benefits of a cloud-based infrastructure while dramatically cutting the cost of hardware. Meanwhile, working with a 200 million line table of sales data in Google BigQuery, the cooperative found that queries ran ten times faster than with its previous database provider. Groupe Dauphinoise is experimenting with Google BigQuery to expand its BI capabilities. Products like Google BigQuery help Groupe Dauphinoise grow its business, safe in the knowledge that its infrastructure is stable and secure.

“The amount of data we collect is growing very quickly. We need to break our rules and evolve from the mindset that we had with on-premise infrastructure and our old databases. We can now look at collecting more customer fidelity data, or big data for our farmers. With our data and infrastructure in Google’s care, we can concentrate on growing our customer base instead of our IT department!” says Sylvain.

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